2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 14, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Buffalo at New England
Monday 09/14 07:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Buffalo +13 (-105) (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
The Patriots welcome back Tom Brady at QB here, and everyone seems to think that it will be business as usual for the Pats. It's Super Bowl or bust again, right? A full 79% of the public is betting the Pats tonight, despite the heavy chalk. Well this team very well could make it to the Super Bowl this year, but that's not what betting this game is about. Let's rewind the tape here before we hand the Pats a double-digit win in this game. Most remember the dominating efforts of a Brady-led offense back in 2007-08. That team became the first to run the regular season table. They were simply awesome. What gets lost in all the hoopla however is that the Patriots lost their last six games ATS that season as a favorite of 11 or more. And, they lost their only two games last year as an 11+ chalk, making them officially 0-8 ATS in their last eight as heavy chalk. That 07-08 team was with a team that was running on all cylinders, posting the most regular season wins ever, and seemingly putting up 30+ points on everyone. But, they couldn't get it done vs. the over taxed big numbers. Now we have a team in game one, with a rusty Tom Brady, with perhaps an ailing shoulder from a pre-season hit. Throw in an aging defense, minus a few big contributors from two years ago, and why do we expect that 0-8 streak to change tonight? The odds-makers know they will get a lot of action, even at a line that is weighted, and the public is biting hard. The Bills offense prior to this season was missing one big player, and they hope that Terrell Owens will be that player. Yes, Marshawn Lynch is out for their first three games, but Fred Jackson has proven to be a good back, getting lots of carries even when Lynch was in the lineup. The Bills now have a threat to stretch the field, as well as strength between the tackles. While the gut tells you to take the Patriots, the right play here is on the Bills with the bushel of points.
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