2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 30, 2005

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

30

Buffalo at New England

Sunday 10/30 08:30 PM Eastern

5 units on Buffalo +9 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55)  RESULT: WIN

My sole losing pick on Sunday last week was Buffalo. Felt good about it going in as I felt Buffalo was better than Oakland going into the game. Coming out of it, I must admit I was wrong on that one - flat out. Oakland was better than I gave them credit for and Buffalo a bit worse. It didn't help that Randy Moss played a big factor after being listed as doubtful but regardless - had that one pegged wrong. What about this week? Buffalo finds themselves getting 9 points against the Champs. At the start of the season, if you told me New England would be laying nine here, I would have shrugged my shoulders and said "about right." But, lots has transpired since the beginning of the season. New England is a shell of their former self. There's no other way to look at it. One of the top teams the past few years, the Pats are simply average this year. Bellichick's genius and Brady's skills have allowed them to get to .500 but make no mistake - they are not a very good team right now. In fact, even after last week's big loss to Oakland, I view Buffalo as only marginally worse than New England. So, getting 9 here is a real gift. Tedy Bruschi may return in this game and that certainly will help a desperate Patriots defense which is ranked 26th in the league. But, again, 9 is too many points. Especially considering that New England's running game has tanked along with their defense. They are gaining just 82 yards per game on the ground and are ranked in the bottom 5 in the league in that category. No defense and no running game and laying 9 points to a divisional foe is a recipe for giving your money away. Even if Bruschi returns, the Pats are still without their two starting cornerbacks Tyrone Poole and Randall Gay as well as backup Duane Starks, DL Richard Seymour and Safety Rodney Harrison. The loss of Harrison, in particular, has crippled a once dominant defense. This game sets up nicely as the public still thinks New England is strong and likes that they are coming off a bye. They also remember last week's 17-38 Buffalo loss. But, t eams off a very big loss now facing a team that gave up 25+ points two games in a row cover the spread about 7 out of 10 times in the NFL. Last week's big loser works hard and gets to go against a bad defense. This one stays closer than 9 as Buffalo isn't as bad as last week indicates and New England just doesn't have the defense to be laying this much. Five stars on the Bills plus the points.

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Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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