2020 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 20, 2020
This pick was released to clients on September 17, 2021 at 2:45PM ET.
Buffalo at Miami
Sunday 09/20 01:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on Miami +6 (-115) (risk 1 to return 1.87) RESULT: WIN
This is the first road game of the season for Buffalo after topping the Jets at home. This is a tough task heading to the warm, humid weather in Miami, and NFL favorites off of a home win are 31-66 ATS in September games. Miami plays hard for coach Brian Flores, on a 5-5 run since last season after a poor start. The Bills like to run the football, and Flores (a Bill Belichick disciple) will stack the line early to force the Bills into second and long especially after allowing New England to rush for 217 yards. Miami has a capable veteran in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the Bills are 14-29 ATS off a home win against a division rival, including 13-27 ATS off a win by 10+ points versus an AFC East rival. In addition, NFL favorites that averaged 5.4 yards per play or more the previous season are 21-50 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards in the last game. Play Miami.
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