2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 20, 2013

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

20

Buffalo at Miami

Sunday 10/20 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Buffalo +6 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 1.5)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Game Total UNDER 44.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: loss

This line feels off to me. Miami had everything going by starting the season 3-0. But the train was derailed before their bye as they limped into it off of two straight losses. They have been exposed as more pretender than contender. Buffalo is not getting much respect here. Granted, they have a practice squad QB taking snaps, but Thad Lewis did a good job last week vs. a very tough defense, throwing for a pair of fourth quarter TDs in a 3-point loss, giving the Bills the cover. Miami has all kinds of issues on offense, and it starts with the offensive line. Their run blocking is weak and as a result the Dolphins have rushed for less than 70 yards per game on the season. With no running game to speak of, Ryan Tannehill has been taking a beating, as he has been sacked 24 times in five games, and is on record pace for the most sacks. Mario Williams, who already has eight sacks on the season, should be in the Miami backfield all afternoon stalling drives. The Dolphins come into this game at 40-19 to the UNDER after allowing 250+ passing yards in their previous game, and their last five conference games have come up shy of the total. Miami is 11-31-1 ATS in their last 43 at home vs. a team with a losing road record, and the Bills have come back to cover five straight after a loss. Just one of the last seven in this series played in Miami, has made it over the total. Take Buffalo and the UNDER in this one.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Bills 14 3 0 6 23
Dolphins 0 14 7 0 21

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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