2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 22, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Sunday 11/22 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Buffalo +9 (-115) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The Buffalo Bills are looking for a change. They fired coach Dick Juaron and elevated Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starter at QB. The Bills will likely be going to the run a lot in this game as Jacksonville ranks just No. 22 against the run and Fred Jackson has had a good year. If the Bills can get the running game going and shorten the game, nine points will be hard for Jacksonville to overcome as they are likely to employ the same strategy against the Bills who have also had trouble stopping the run. The Bills secondary has made a lot of big plays this season, so the vulnerability here is against the run. This line is predicated on what happened last week. The Bills were torched by a Titans team that is getting its act together after a horrendous start, and the Jags have won two straight. The reality remains that the Jags are a team barely over .500 that has a sub-.500 ATS mark and an 8-17 ATS record dating back to last season. Over that span they are 1-10 ATS as a favorite! So, 9 points here is too much. To put it in perspective, the league’s worst team, the St. Louis Rams, came in here as a 9.5 point underdog and here we have the Bills at +9. The oddsmakers are saying the Bills and Rams are on equal footing? It also should be noted it took the Jags OT to get past the Rams and their two-game winning streak is comprised of wins by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. That means that the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! Hardly a team deserving of such a lofty pointspread. The Bills have covered six of their last eight on the road, while the Jags have struggled to a 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 at home. Too many points here, I'll go with the Bills.