2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 28, 2014
This pick was released to clients on September 25, 2014 at 8:09PM ET.
Buffalo at Houston
Sunday 09/28 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Buffalo +3 (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 2.93) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total OVER 41 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: loss
This line is simply off. Last week's loss to the New York Giants, who showed nothing in their first two games, has got to be in the Texans' heads right now. Last year Houston opened the season at 2-0 and looked to be headed for a good season, but they then proceeded to lose 14 in a row...deja vu? Ironically, recycled Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is now directing the Houston offense, while Mario Williams, who spent six years in Houston is now the pinnacle of the Bills defense. E.J. Manuel has benefitted greatly with the addition of Sammy Watkins this season. He has become Manuel's go-to guy. Watkins already has seven catches for first downs, tied for #1 in the AFC, and it has made a difference with this Buffalo offense. Arian Foster may miss his second straight game, and despite missing last week, he is still #5 in the league in rushing. His presence will be missed. Houston may abort the run all together as the Bills have stuffed the run all season, but rank #26 in pass defense. Houston is now #25 on defense, allowing 385 yards per game, and they gave up 30 last week to a previously woeful Giants' attack. The Bills should be able to move the ball and get at least one more stop. I also think there will be ample points scored here to top the total. Houston is just 6-14 ATS in their last 20, and 1-8 ATS after allowing over 150 yards on the ground in their previous game. The Bills are getting a bounce off a loss at 9-3 ATS in their last 12, and the Bills' offense has come back strong after scoring 14 or fewer in their previous game, resulting in a 10-3-1 mark to the OVER in their last 14. Houston is now 7-3 to the OVER after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous contest. There will be a lot of points in this one, but not enough for Houston. Take Buffalo and the OVER.
Last 20.4 years
Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis