2019 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 04, 2020
This pick was released to clients on January 13, 2022 at 10:59AM ET.
Buffalo at Houston
Saturday 01/04 04:35 PM Eastern
1 unit on Buffalo +125 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 2.25) RESULT: loss
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 44 -115 (risk 1.5 to return 2.8) RESULT: win
The Bills made their own bye last week, resting players against the Jets. RB Devin Singletary (775 yards, 5.1 ypc) leads the No. 5 ranked ground attack, which should chew up yards and the clock along with mobile QB Josh Allen (20 TDs, 9 INTS), who made big strides. The Bill's punishing defense is why they're here as the "D" is third in yards allowed, #10 against the run, fourth versus the pass, and second in points (16.2 per game). On the road this season, they were actually better, allowing just 15.6 points. Buffalo's offense scored just 19.6 points per game and struggles down the stretch, averaging just 13.3 per game in their last four contests. Buffalo is 19-7 UNDER the total on the road, 19-7 UNDER as a dog, and 35-16 UNDER as a road dog. Houston's defense isn't in the same league, ranked #18 in points surrendered, #24 against the run (120 ypg), fourth-worst against the pass. Over the last seven seasons, teams like Houston that are coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to the hand of a division rival are 59-29 to the UNDER. Teams off a double digit loss are 368-290 to the UNDER over the last eight seasons when the total falls between 41.5 - 50. Combined this season, these teams were 21-11 to the UNDER. The Bills were 6-2 on the road this season, good for a better win percentage than Houston had at home. Teams off a home blowout loss of more than 14 points are just 277-546 (33.7%) straight-up in their next game. That includes a mark of just 199-494 (28.7%) if not favored by at least a field goal. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are 13-8 straight-up off a loss. Also, this game opened to a total of 41 and has been bet up by the public to 44. I think the oddsmakers had it right to start. Play Buffalo to win this one straight-up and also play the UNDER in this game.