2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 07, 2014
This pick was released to clients on December 05, 2014 at 9:45AM ET.
Buffalo at Denver
Sunday 12/07 04:05 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Denver -9 (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 2.93) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total OVER 47.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: loss
The Denver Broncos will be charged up as they take the field at home vs. the Buffalo Bills in this one. At 9-3, Denver now shares the lead in the AFC with New England for home field advantage throughout the playoffs after the Pats stumbled in Green Bay last week. THis is an absolute must win for the Broncos and they will leave little to chance. Denver has been pretty much unbeatable at home since Peyton Manning took over the offense, as they are 20-2 straight-up during the regular season. This high-powered offense averages 35.8 points per game. The Broncos' winning margin overall in these games has been over 15 ppg, and in their 20 wins they have put up over 37 points per game with the winning margin at 18 ppg. They are also 15-7 ATS and 15-6-1 to the OVER. Buffalo has had a decent season - better than expected. But, they have struggled against some of the better teams and own three losses on the season by 12 points or more. They have had one shot at an elite offense, and allowed New England to go for 37 points and that was at home. Denver has averaged that number at home under Manning. The Bills have lacked consistency as over their last 36 games following a win they have posted an ugly 10-25-1 ATS mark. They are also 0-6 ATS the past two seasons vs. the best offensive teams (those averaging 24+ ppg). Dating back to 2012, Buffalo is 1-9 ATS vs. teams like Denver that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game. The Broncos have been the best OVER team in the NFL, coming into this game at 58-28-1 to the OVER in their last 87 games, with the OVER in this series prevailing in four of the last five. Lay the points on Denver and take the OVER in this one.
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