2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 13, 2011
Buffalo at Dallas
Sunday 11/13 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
Often times you see teams in the NFL that aren't as good as they are supposed to be that are facing a team that is better than they were supposed to be. When that happens, it creates a reputation line. Dallas finds themselves in that position vs. Buffalo. The Cowboys were just 6-10 a year ago and were supposed to rebound this season, but at .500 for the season they have been disappointing. Buffalo, on the otherhand, has become a legitimate 5-3 on the season behind a quickly-maturing QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been every bit the equal to Tony Romo as their QB ratings are dead even on the season. The Cowboys are mediocre against the pass, and at the same time have faltered against the run since losing LB Sean Lee to injury. Buffalo has not been as good defensively since nose tackle Kyle Williams went down with an injury, so I think the offenses are going to score a lot here. The Dallas defense has only looked good when facing the three losing teams on their schedule who have a combined record of 6-18. The Cowboys allowed just 12 points per game in those three contests, but it has been a different matter altogether against winning teams, where the five game average is just shy of 28 points per. The Bills have faced a tough schedule as Dallas will be the seventh team with a winning record they have faced this season. They too have allowed just about 28 ppg in those six contests, so points are going to be scored here. The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine as a road dog - clearly an under the radar team, and these teams are even with both missing key defenders. The difference is that Buffalo has a better record and has played a tougher schedule, so this line should really be about 3. The Cowboys have gone OVER the total in 10 of their last 13 at home. Buffalo has put up 20 points in all but one game this season and 30+ in three games. Against good offenses (San Francisco, Detroit, New England, Philadelphia), Dallas has surrendered 28 per game. Take the Bills and the OVER.