2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 09, 2012

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Baltimore at Washington

Sunday 12/09 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Baltimore PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

The Washington Redskins kept their playoffs hopes alive with a big emotional win over division rival New York on Monday Night. The whole nation saw that and the hype-machine on the Skins (and RGIII in particular) is at a season-high. This team now has to come back from that huge emotional game on short rest and getting up like that for two straight games is very hard in the NFL. They face a 9-3 Ravens team that is going to be (more) hungry off a loss. The Ravens have played one bad game all season which resulted in a lopsided 43-13 defeat against Houston. Their other two losses have been by 1 and 3 points. So despite any perceived issues with this team, the fact is they just win (or keep the game very close). The Ravens are 36-12 in their last 48 regular season games and 9 of the 12 losses have been by 5 points or less. It doesn't seem to matter if they have injuries or not, this team comes to play every week. They win most of their games, and are in it to the end in the ones they do lose. Washington has gotten better on the defensive side of the ball, and even though RGII has been very solid and Alfred Morris has run for over 1,100 yards, the Skins have still scored only 17 points or less in half of their last eight games. Baltimore always brings a strong physicality to every game, and the Skins are off of one of those games vs. the Giants and are on short rest here. Baltimore is going to be physical here, and that usually means defensive, as four of their last five on the road have played to the UNDER. The Skins have played 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six. This will be their toughest back-to-back games of the season, and I don't think at this stage of their development they are up for the challenge. Dating back to his time with Denver, Mike Shanahan is 4-21 ATS in his last 25 home games when favored. Meanwhile, under Jon Harbaugh, the Ravens are 22-12 ATS in expected close games (line of +3 to -3) and 14-5 ATS on the road following an ATS loss. Take Baltimore and play on the UNDER.
Ravens 7 14 0 7 0 28
Washington 14 0 6 8 3 31



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