2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 25, 2011

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Baltimore at St. Louis

Sunday 09/25 04:05 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The vaunted Ravens defense allowed 26 points to Tennessee last week on the road in a shocking 26-13 loss. John Harbaugh has to be worried about how differently this defense plays at home vs. how they play on the road. Their last six home games have seen this Ravens team stuff the opponent for a grand total of 71 points or 11.8 points per game. The road has been a completely different story with the defense allowing 20.5 ppg. That is almost a 10-point difference. St. Louis has been a similar team on offense. On the road they can't get it going. Over their last eight they have averaged 16 ppg (13.6 ppg if you remove a 36-point output last year against the worst defense in the league at Denver). At home they are averaging 20 ppg in their last eight. That, combined with a defense that has allowed 30 ppg so far this season, has led the Rams to a 13-6 mark to the OVER in their last 19 as a home dog from +3.5 to +10. The Ravens are now 12-5 to the OVER after scoring 14 or less in their previous game. I expect both Flacco and Bradford to find the end zone repeatedly here. Take the OVER.
Ravens 21 6 3 7 37
Rams 0 0 7 0 7



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

with detailed analysis