2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

August 07, 2008

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Baltimore at New England

Thursday 08/07 07:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Baltimore +3.5 (-125) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

It is going to be difficult psychologically for bettors to look at a New England game and resist them as just a mere 5 point favorite at home. What we must do however is keep this in perspective. This is an exhibition game! The logo on the helmets and regular season success and failure do not come into play here. But the oddsmakers are forced by the hand of the betting public to consider a few extra points. Even with that said over 60% have already pulled the trigger for the Pats in this one. The Pats opened the season in 2007 scoring 30+ points in their first eight regular-season games. A great start, right? Consider however they did not reach 30 in a single exhibition game. Brady threw seven passes in the opener last season. The result was 10 total points scored and a Patriot loss. Their's no doubt this offense will turn it on come September, but the preseason is a different animal all together. The Patriots have been an elite team for years, but over the last three exhibition seasons they have been favored by 4 or more points three times and have not covered a single one. In contrast, we have the Baltimore Ravens with a first year coach in John Harbaugh. What does that mean? First year coaches are new for a reason - their teams were bad last season - bad enough to fire their head man. New coaches come in for one reason - to change things. They want to win from the start, more than entrenched coaches, and especially more than coaches of teams so good that have nothing to prove to anyone (i.e. the Pats). These first-year coaches want to change the culture of losing and as such, they put more of an emphasis on winning in the preseason. Does Harbaugh want to win here? Yes! Does Bellichick? He could really care less. The Patriots have dropped two of their last three ehibition home openers outright. We will back the more motivated Ravens here to keep this one close, or even steal one.
Ravens 3 10 3 0 16
Patriots 0 3 3 9 15



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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