2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 21, 2014
This pick was released to clients on December 17, 2014 at 10:06PM ET.
Baltimore at Houston
Sunday 12/21 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Houston +6 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 2.86) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total OVER 41.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: loss
This is a low total for a Baltimore team with a strong, balanced offense. Baltimore is 4-1 OVER the total on the road and this game is indoors. For over a decade, Baltimore has been a much better team at home than on the road and the same is true in 2014 with a better home mark. The Ravens are 3-9-1 ATS against the AFC and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in December. They are a road favorite against a Houston team that has outscored its opponents by +47. Every other team in the NFL with that ratio or higher has a winning record! That's even better than the 10-4 Lions or 11-3 Cardinals. Houston is on a 3-1-1 ATS run and 6-2 ATS after a loss, with the fourth-best ground attack in the NFL. Houston's All-Pro DE J.J. Watt continues to terrorize opposing quarterbacks with seven sacks in the last three games, giving him 16 1/2 on the season to rank third in the league. This line is an over-reaction to the change at QB for Houston. Case Keenum started eight games for Houston last season and was decent. He won't be that big of a dropoff from Fitzpatrick and the line here doesn't reflect that. In addition, Houston is 4-1 OVER the total after a defeat and 26-10 to the OVER in their last 36 as a home dog. When these teams meet, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Houston. Play the points on Houston and take the OVER.
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