2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 16, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Baltimore at Detroit
Monday 12/16 08:30 PM Eastern
1 unit on Detroit -4.5 (-107) (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: loss
1.5 units on Game Total OVER 49 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 1.5) RESULT: loss
Since 1999 Baltimore has often been a great team at home (74% SU, 59% ATS) but a very different one on the road (46% SU, 50% ATS). This season has been typical: 6-1 at home, 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens won a wild one a week ago, topping Minnesota 29-26 in a game that saw six lead changes in the fourth quarter. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December. This offense has had problems all year, ranking 20th in passing and 29th in rushing. Baltimore hasn't been able to do much on offense all year and was lucky to beat the 3-9 Vikings at home. Detroit is in first place with no such problems on offense. They are third in the NFL in passing behind Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson and sixth in points with 26.6 points per game (31.7 at home). By contrast, Baltimore is 24th in the NFL in scoring. Detroit RB Reggie Bush has been a terrific acquisition and will be back after missing last week's game in the snow at Philly. They have used him as a running back and an effective pass catcher out of the backfield, creating mismatches nearly every game. The Lions are 5-2 ATS after a spread loss and the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Play the Detroit Lions. Also take the OVER. It's clear right now in the NFL offenses have the upper-hand and the oddsmakers haven't yet adjusted enough. We saw 10 of 14 games go OVER yesterday. Since week four of this season, OVERs have hit at a crazy 58% rate blind! Detroit is going to score a lot tonight. They have a quarterback that thrives when not facing pressure. His offensive line has been good this season at keeping the pressure off so I look for Stafford to have a lot of success, scoring in the 30s. Baltimore should be able to get into the low 20s as that's where their season average falls and Detroit's defense gives up 25 points pre game. Dating back to last season, the Lions are 19-10 to the OVER including 14-5 OVER as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 OVER in non-conference games. Since the arrival of Jon Harbaugh, Baltimore is 16-7 OVER in non-conference games. Take the home team in a score-fest.