2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 16, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Baltimore at Cleveland
Monday 11/16 08:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Cleveland +12.5 (-125) (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
The Browns have not been impressive offensively. In fact they have been downright awful. But this is a situation that backs them. They are coming off a bye and getting double-digits at home from a team that has shown some weaknesses. We watched Tampa Bay come off a bye as a 10 point underdog and beat the Packers outright, scoring more points than they have in 121 regular season games in the process. This week we watched the anemic Rams offense that averaged under 10 points per game score the most points they have scored all season against the Saints. The Rams were also off a bye. Weak teams coming off a bye tend to play their best game of the year, and when getting 5+ points they are 32-6 ATS over the last 38 such games. The Ravens have not looked as good defensively this season as they did a year ago. They are 1-3 on the road this season, giving up 26 points per game. They have dropped four of their last five overall. The Ravens have not done well in Cleveland, despite the fact the Browns for the most part have been a weak team over the past five years. Baltimore is just 2-3 here in the last five years, and have never won during this span by more than 10 points. They have actually been outscored overall by 24 points. This looks ugly I am backing the home division double-digit dog, coming off a bye.