2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 21, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

21

Atlanta at New York

Sunday 11/21 04:15 PM Eastern

3 units on New York +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)  RESULT: loss

3 units on New York +135 (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 7.05)  RESULT: loss

Two of the NFL's future potential hall-of-fame quarterbacks matchup in the Big Apple as Eli Manning faces Michael Vick. After a promising start, the Giants have stumbled their way to 5-4 after losing 3 of their last 4 games. The G-Men have lost games as a favorite of -2, -6.5 and -9. No wonder they are getting points today. New York is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Atlanta has impressed with aggressive defense. The Falcons have 27 sacks and their defense was the reason they won big last week. The big question is whether the rookie can survive against this defense. Will Manning be another Ben Rothleisberger and defy the rookie jitters? I doubt he'll do that good. But, I think he'll do well enough. He's been chomping at the bit for his shot and he was nothing less than amazing in college and he played solid during the preseason. Three are three primary reasons why I think he'll lead the Giants to a victory here and none of them have to do with his last name. First, he's got a guy named Tiki Barber, to take some of the pressure off. Tiki'll go over 1000 yards on Sunday and he's alrady got 9 touchdowns. Second, the Giants have a very good defense (ranked 8th in the league) which should mean Manning won't have to score tons of points in this one. And third, the Falcon's pass defense is bad - ranked 28th in the league. The Falcons "D" has allowed a 67% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks! If he can avoid the sacks, he'll do just fine. Despite Atlanta's strong play of late and New York's fall from grace, my statistical analysis tells me that New York is the better team. They've fallen victim to some bad luck and a fumbling quarterback. Road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after a game in which they outrushed their opponets by 100+ yards are an incredible 37-7 ATS. Take the home puppy here against the "comfortable" team off a big divisional win. Bet 165 to win 150 on the Giants plus the points and another 150 to win 203 on the G-Men straight-up.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

Premium Picks Available Now

Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis