2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 08, 2012
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Atlanta at New York
Sunday 01/08 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Atlanta PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: loss
3 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
The Atlanta Falcons had the best record in the NFC playoffs last season, but were bounced in game one when they met the red-hot Green Bay Packers who went on to win it all. The Falcons take to the road this season with their 10-6 record against the 9-7 Giants who beat Dallas in the last game of the season to get here. The Giants may have won that game, but this is a team that has struggled once again in the second half of the season, finishing 3-5. It is also a team that has losses vs. the likes of Seattle and Washington twice. Eli Manning is one of those QBs that will make the perfect pass one series and the dumb pass the next. He has been plagued by interceptions over the last two years throwing a total of 41. Most pundits will announce that he is the better quarterback going into this game, but the reality is both he and Matt Ryan threw 29 touchdowns while Manning had 16 picks to Ryan's 12 and in the playoffs, turnovers loom very large. Through four weeks of the season the Falcons were 2-2 and looking like anything but a playoff team. Since that time their only losses have come to three teams, those amongst the three best in the entire league in Houston, Green Bay and New Orleans twice. Those three teams and their combined records are 51-13. That is the profile of the team that has beaten Atlanta, and the Giants simply don't fit it - not even close. In fact, the Giants are a mediocre team at best having been outscored this season by their opponents overall. Atlanta went 8-0 in their last eight "other" games and no one came closer than 6 points to them. Defensively, outside of the second to the last game of the season vs. New Orleans, who is hanging big numbers weekly, they have been very tough. The Falcons had the Bucs 42-0 before they called off the dogs and allowed 24. They held seven of nine teams leading up to those two to 17 points or less. The Falcons score less on the road than at home and the Giants score less at home than on the road this season. The Giants’ defense which was gouged early in the season has patched things up somewhat, allowing 17 ppg over their last three of the season. They have played 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven playoff games. Atlanta comes in at 38-14-3 to the UNDER in their last 55 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. My computer matchup for this game likes Atlanta to stay close and I agree. Play on Atlanta and the UNDER.
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