2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 24, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

24

Atlanta at Kansas City

Sunday 10/24 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Atlanta +4 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Atlanta +170 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 5.4)  RESULT: loss

Atlanta is 5-1 and Kansas City is 1-4. Why is Kansas City favored? Kansas City is giving up 26.4 points a game and scoring just 21. Why is Kansas City favored? The Falcons boast the league's best rushing defense while Kansas City's is ranked 23rd. Why is Kansas City favored? Well, you get the picture. Just ask yourself - which is the better team? I'm not a big fan of betting on gut instinct but this game feels pretty compelling. Michael Vick hasn't broken out yet this year but I expect him to have a big game against Kansas City's defense. Back to Atlanta's defense. They held LaDanian Tomlinson to 66 yards and they are holding opposing teams to 74.5 yards on the ground on the season. This is one reason I like this matchup. If the Falcons can keep Priest Holmes from exploding, I think they win this game. Another reason I like it is that Atlanta is rushing for 147 yards per game - 3rd best in the NFL. Kansas City's defense can't stop a thing and should get shredded by this running game and Michael Vick. Those who like K.C. this week will point to the fact that Kansas City's defense is steadily improving. It is but it was coming from such a low point that it doesn't matter. This should have been clear to anyone watching Byron Leftwich effortlessly engineer a game-winning 67 yard drive in the final minutes of last week's game. Atlanta's the better team and we're getting points. Bet 220 to win 200 on Atlanta +4 and 100 to win 170 on the Falcons straight-up.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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