2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 21, 2012

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Arizona at Minnesota

Sunday 10/21 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Arizona PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: LOSS

We faded Arizona in a big way last week and that worked out. This week I believe the pendulum has swung too far and it's time to back the Cards. Two of the surprises so far this NFL season are the facts that the Cardinals and the Vikings head into this game at 4-2. I think that the oddsmakers have gotten a bit too bullish on the Vikings who have not been a favorite this large in just about two years. Ironically that was at home as a 7-point favorite vs. the Arizona Cardinals. That was under Brett Favre and the game went into overtime as the Vikings won by 3. It is now Christian Ponder, Adrien Peterson, and Percy Harvin. The problem is that one member of that trio, and perhaps the most important one, Adrien Peterson has been dealing with an ankle injury. Peterson did not practice on Thursday, but will see action in this one. The injury has limited Peterson to 4.4 yards per carry - the lowest of his career. He has scored just two TDs after registering 10 or more every season prior to this one. The Cardinals will go back to John Skelton after Kolb suffered some injured ribs, but remember that Skelton beat out Kolb for the starting job to open the season. The Cardiac Cardinals find a way to stay in games with their high-level defense. Their last 16 games have seen 13 of them decided by 7 points or less, so they’re almost always in their games down to the last possession. I don't see anything different here. The Vikings have struggled against winning teams at 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 16-7 ATS vs. teams that average 24+ points per game. Take Arizona plus the points here.
Cardinals 0 7 0 7 14
Vikings 7 7 7 0 21



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

with detailed analysis