2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 05, 2014
This pick was released to clients on October 02, 2014 at 6:17PM ET.
Arizona at Denver
Sunday 10/05 04:05 PM Eastern
1 unit on Denver -7.5 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total OVER 47.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: win
The Cardinals have run the table at 3-0, and are coming off a bye, so they are looking good by getting more than a TD here, right? I'm not taking the bait. The Cards are off a huge win at home as an underdog, but that will work against them for this one. Teams that win as a dog with a greater than .500 record on the season are 44-95-4 ATS in their next game from week five on. If you're worried about the extra rest, teams off a bye in that spot are 2-7 ATS, so it doesn't help at all. Seattle gets a lot of ink for their prowess at home and the "12th Man", but this Denver team is 15-1 straight-up in their last 16 regular season home games - all 16 wins coming by 7 points or more. Thank you Peyton Manning. He's licking his chops given that the Arizona defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% of their passes thus far. The Broncos are averaging 35.9 points per game during the 16-game stretch, so I think the total is in jeopardy as well. The Broncos have the highest home OVER percentage over the last 25 years than any team in the NFL as their home games have gone 120-84-5, for just under 59%. When the Broncos are a home favorite of less than 10, that zooms up to 82-50-4 at 62.1% to the OVER. Denver is 6-0 ATS in their last six when following a loss, and 16-6 ATS in the John Fox era as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). They are also 25-7 to the OVER in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Denver and the OVER.
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