New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks Point Spread Picks

Super Bowl LXI gives us a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX (2015) when the Patriots beat the Seahawks thanks to Malcom Butler’s interception on the goal line. For anyone (like me) who bet on Seattle in that one, “Why didn’t you hand the ball off to Lynch!?!” will forever be etched in our minds. That pick was my lone Super Bowl loss on the main game pick in a 15-year span from 2008 through 2022. The last four years I have split and it’s time to notch another winner. At least we don’t have to deal with the Chiefs this year, thank goodness. 

These two teams deserve to be here. Both only lost three games all season. They own the top two scoring defenses and both are top eight in scoring offense. Seattle won games by an average of 12 points per game while the Pats won by 10 per game. These are dominant teams, fairly evenly matched. My computer pick for this game has Seattle winning by about 3.5 points. The public is on the favorite, Seattle. Not surprising given the recent performances of these teams. Seattle took the bye during Wildcard weekend and went on to win their next two games by a combined 39 points, averaging 36 points per game. Meanwhile, New England beat the Chargers, but only scored 16 points in that game. They beat Houston and then struggled on offense again vs. Denver, scoring only 10 points. The Pats have stumbled a little in the eyes of the public, while Seattle has been steamrolling.

What will happen here?

When Seattle has the ball
The Seahawks like to throw the ball. Somehow, Sam Darnold established himself as a top 10 QB this season. His connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been devastating for opponents this season. JSN led the league in receiving yards and dismantled the Rams' defense last week. Rashid Shaheed has given enough to force teams to not throw all of their resources at JSN.

On the ground, Seattle was solid if not elite, with the combination of Zach Charbonnet and Keneth Walker III combining for over 1,500 yards. This was a balanced attack all year, converting well on third down. They were remarkably consistent this year. With Charbonnet suffering an ACL tear in the diviisonal round, Walker had to work hard to churn out 62 yards on 19 carries vs. the Rams (and 49 more yards through the air). The loss of Charbonnet is not insignificant.

During the regular season, Seattle struggled offensively vs. a well-known foe, San Francisco (scoring just 26 points in two meetings), but against everyone else, the Seahawks averaged over 31 points per game. The Patriots' defense gave up just 17.3 points per game, holding 13 opponents to under 21 points each. At the end of the season, this Pats defense was peaking. In the playoffs, New England has allowed just 8.7 points per game, and dating back to the last couple of games of the regular season, they have held four of five opponents to 10 points or less, allowing just 9.2 per game over that stretch. Of course, the weather in the the three Patriots playoff games was atrocious, and their defense benefited from this. If we exclude the playoff games, New England allowed 18.8 points per game.

The only QB who really torched this New England defense was Josh Allen. As good as Sam Darnold has played this season, he’s no Josh Allen. Where the Pats excel is in rush defense: 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Seattle is likely going to struggle on the ground in this one, especially with half of their dual-threat out. When Seattle faced defenses similar to New England’s this year, the Hawks averaged 20 points per game. New England gave up 28 points per game vs. offenses similar to Seattle’s. I expect Seattle to move the ball between the 20s but possibly be challenged to score touchdowns. Overall, the numbers suggest Seattle to score around 23 points in this game.

When New England has the ball
The Pats offense was prolific for most of the year, but struggled down the stretch. Overall on the season they scored 27.2 points per game (compared to 29.2 for Seattle). The offensive difficulties came in the playoffs where they averaged just 18 points per game. New England put up 16 vs. the Chargers, 28 against Houston and just 10 vs. Denver.

Did Drake Maye and this offense lose their mojo or was it something else? I posit a lot of it (most? all?) was due to the weather conditions. All three of those games were cold, snowy, and windy. Against Houston, there were eight combined turnovers in what was described by analysts at the time as “a swirling white canvas.” The Pats managed to score 28 points in this game anyway. In the other two playoff games, their offense really struggled. In the matchup versus the Chargers, it was freezing temperatures with heavy, sustained winds of 20-25 miles per hour and gusts up to 36 mph. It was one of the windiest games of the entire NFL season. Scoring doesn’t come easy in those conditions. And in Denver, the weather was even worse! It was basically a blizzard with real-feel temperatures reaching single digits with snow falling. Wind gusts exceeded 20 mph and the field was almost unplayable in the 4th quarter.

So, I am not putting a lot of weight on these games offensively. Heck, in the five games prior to those terrible conditions, New England’s offense averaged 34.4 points per game and on the season they scored 31+ points eight times!

But Maye and company face a stiff test here. Seattle’s defense is the best in the league, having allowed just 17.1 points per game. And at the end of the season, they improved, allowing 13.5 points per game over their final eight regular-season and playoff games.

Matthew Stafford, however, exposed them twice during that run, with the Rams putting up 37 on December 7th and 27 last week vs. the Seahawks. Stafford was off-the-charts this season and was clearly the top QB in 2025-26. Drake Maye isn’t in that league, but he’s been excellent. I have him rated the 6th best QB this season. Maye is the second-best QB Seattle has had to face all season and the other guy torched them.

When Seattle faced excellent offenses this season, they allowed 23 points per game. When New England played elite defenses this season, they scored 27 points per game. Note these are small sample sizes, but based on these numbers, New England may be expected to also score around 23 points in this game.

Super Bowl matchups featuring a big mismatch are a thing of the past. They are all fairly close, and this year is similar. Two great teams that deserve to be here. We have two elite offenses and defenses. Either team can win this game.

I feel like this spread is off, primarily due to the recency effect. Seattle was anointed “the #1 team in the NFL” weeks ago, and getting past the Rams only cemented that in people’s minds. They have been steamrolling and seem destined.

But let us not forget that the Rams very easily could have won last week. A fortuitous fumbled punt in their own red zone led to a Seattle touchdown. Remove that somewhat random play, and the Rams are playing this Sunday instead of Seattle. Even with that catastrophic turnover, LA had a chance to go up by 3 points with 2:11 left in the game, but they missed a very makable 48-yard field goal. If that’s not enough, the Rams missed a very makable 44-yard field goal earlier in the game. Of course, the Rams got some breaks too - I’m not saying it’s all one-sided. But what I am saying is that the Seahawks are fairly fortunate to have won the NFC Championship game. They needed some help. The public and even the linesmakers are essentially ignoring this, largely because of New England’s offensive struggles in Denver.

Throw in the fact that Mike Vrabel seems to have the “it” factor and I like New England. Yes, Mike Macdonald has done a tremendous job in Seattle. But Vrabel won coach of the year for a reason. He took a 4-13 team and turned it into a 14-3 team. The guy looks 100% in control on the field and his players trust him. I give Vrabel a slight edge.

The Pats certainly can win this game outright. I think they probably do at least half the time if these teams played each other 100 times. I couldn’t argue with a 2-to-1 moneyline bet here. But let’s go with the spread in case the Patriots lose a close one.

Also take the OVER here. We have two of the best offenses and two of the best defenses, but I think this total is set a little low. Seattle is 11-8 to the OVER this season including 2-0 in the playoffs, while New England is 12-8 to the OVER including a 6-2 OVER mark the past two months. Those two UNDERs? Crazy bad weather. Seattle averaged 26.4 on the road this season while New England scored 27.3 per game away from home. Number one seeds in the playoffs coming off back-to-back favorite covers are 44-20 to the OVER. Meanwhile, teams like New England, coming off a straight-up win as a favorite, but failing to cover the spread, are 86-41 OVER when facing a team off a home win. New England is 22-13 OVER as an underdog over the past three seasons. They are also 12-2 OVER when facing opponents that average 5.7+ yards per play.

Take the UNDER in the first quarter as well. Play-calling in Super Bowls tends to be very conservative at the start compared to other games. Both teams want desperately to avoid losing the game in the first quarter. Players are on edge and nerves are high. Only three Super Bowls out of the last 21 have seen more than 10 points scored in the first quarter. And this game features the top two scoring defenses in the league. The total for the first quarter is set at 9.5 with juice and it’s worth it to get the win if 9 points are scored.

Seattle won at home in the opener and now makes a 2,500-mile road trip to the East Coast changing three time zones. QB Geno Smith had a touchdown and an interception, giving him 24 TDs and 13 picks in his last 18 games with the Seahawks. Seattle is 0-7-1 ATS after allowing less than 150 yards passing in the last game. New England isn't getting any respect with this betting number. The Patriots didn't win many games last season but the defense was excellent ranked seventh in the NFL in total yards allowed and on third down (36.29%). They look just as strong defensively after winning at Cincinnati as an underdog, 16-10. The defense allowed 224 total yards and forced two turnovers. The Patriots have won five straight as an underdog. Play New England. 

Prior to Super Bowl 48, it had been a while since we had the top two teams in the league meet in the Super Bowl. We now get treated to that for the second year in a row. The Patriots and Seahawks were supposed to be here. It may not have appeared that way in early October. New England was 2-2 to start the season but went on to win 12 of their last 15 games to make it here. They dominated along the way, outscoring opponents 468-261 in the process. Despite "deflategate", the Pats deserve to be here.

Seattle also started slow, losing three of their first six games. But after that they went 11-1, allowing an average of 12.7 points per game. In their last eight games, Seattle has given up just 9.8 per game. Surely a case can be made that Seattle should not be here. They were dead-to-rights in the NFC Championship before Green Bay choked away the win. In that game Seattle had a -3 turnover ratio and teams that lose the turnover battle that badly almost never win. In fact, teams with a -3 or worse turnover ratio are just 119-1391 (7.9%) over the past quarter decade. So, it was truly miraculous that Seattle won two weeks ago. But in the end, the Seahawks finished the season with 11 of 12 wins and deserve to be here.

The line on this game opened offshore as high as Seattle -3 but with money quickly flowing to the Pats, the line quickly moved the other way. As of this writing, New England is favored slightly. Much like last year when over 70% of the bets came in on the Broncos, the public is fading Seattle again this year by a 70%+ clip. The public tends to like offense over defense. Defense is boring. Scoring is exciting. They wanted to root for Peyton Manning and the high-flying Broncos offense. They want to root for Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and the team that scored 35 and 45 points in the playoffs this year. The public was dead wrong last season. Are they wrong again? My computer match-up for this game (not an official pick) predicts a very close game. Let's look at what is likely to happen...

The Patriots rank tops in the league in points per game this season at 30.4. While impressive, that figure is low for the top team in the league in the modern NFL. Last season, Denver led the league with 36.4 per game. The season prior, the leader had 33.9 per game and the year before that, 34.7. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to see a scoring leader average fewer points than the 2014 Patriots. New England struggled early in the year vs. Oakland (16 points) and Kansas City (14) and late in the year vs. Green Bay (21), San Diego (23), the Jets (17) and Buffalo (9). In their other 12 games, the Pats scored at will. The closest defenses they faced compared to what they will see on Super Sunday were Buffalo, Kansas City and Detroit. Against those teams, the Patriots were very inconsistent, scoring 37, 9, 34 and 14 (an average of 23.5). Which team shows up here - the team that dominated 12 opponents and scored 30+ against good defenses or the one that struggled vs. against mediocre teams and scored 14 or less vs. good defenses? Seattle's defense was again tops in the league this year, allowing 16.3 points per game. That's not as dominant as last year's team that gave up just 14.6 per game. But, it should be noted that Seattle had a lot of injuries early in the year resulting in a very un-Seattle like defensive average of 21.5 points per game allowed through the first ten games of the season. They gave up 24+ points in half of those games! But then the defense got healthy. From game 11 on, Seattle has allowed just 9.8 points per game, albeit to mostly bad teams with bad quarterbacks. But, they did what you would want to see vs. bad offenses: they shut them down. Seattle held six of their final eleven opponents to 7 points or less. During that span they faced two very good offenses: Philadelphia and Green Bay, allowing 14 and 22 points, respectively. Over the course of the season, Seattle gave up an average of 20.4 points per game to the top offenses. In the the numbers would dictated Seattle allowing something in the low 20s here. Yes, the Pats offense is great and it seems like they can put up 30+ on anyone. But the reality is that usually doesn't happen in Super Bowls vs. great defenses. Just ask the Denver Broncos.

Seattle's offense got no respect last season which is one reason I really liked them in the Super Bowl. This offense won't light it up very often because they don't have to. They have the best defense in the league and so they play conservatively and do what they need to do to win. I have been lauding Russell Wilson for two years now and at this point I think he is one of the top QBs in the league, hands down. In fact, if I had to win one game, I likely take him over any other quarterback. He's calm, smart, humble and nearly mistake-free. He can make any throw on the field and he can extend plays better than anyone. When he has to make a big play, he makes it. He prepares meticulously, doesn't overextend and he doesn't care about his stats. He cares about winning and he achieves it better than anyone else. On the season, Seattle had a top-10 scoring offense, averaging 25.2 points per game. They scored 23+ in eleven of eighteen games and 30+ five times. This offense can score. New England's defense ranks 7th best in the league in points allowed at 19.5 points per game. That's very good, if not elite. Against defenses like that this season, Seattle averaged 22.5 points per game. Against offenses like Seattle's, New England allowed 25.7 points per game. Miami scored 33 vs. New England early in the season and 13 late in the season and Baltimore scored 31 vs. the Pats a few weeks ago. In their 45-7 win over the Colts last week, the Pats feasted on short passes to Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. Indy had no answer and the quick Patriots receivers destroyed chewed up yardage and moved the chains. If you recall, Denver's offense last season was very similar with Wes Welker creating a matchup nightmare for most teams. I predicted that the Broncos would not be able to get a lot of passes with high yards-after-catch last season and I think the same holds this year. Seattle's defense is just too quick and fundamentally sound. In the end, the numbers indicate that Seattle likely scores in the low 20s here.

So, the numbers tell a tale of a very close game in the low 20s. However, I am making a call and it's on the Seahawks. The Super Bowl is about defense. Great defenses routinely humble great offenses in these games. Tom Brady's 18-0 team that averaged 34.5 points per game back in 2008 scored 14 when they met the Giants and their fierce pass-rush in the Super Bowl. The Pats also lost four years later when they managed just 17 points vs. the Giants again. And of course there is last year when Seattle's top rated unit held the high-flying Denver Broncos to 8 points. It seems most people have forgotten this already, but this game looks very much like last year's game. I think the Seahawks will have offensive success. Marshawn Lynch will get his yards. In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 29-11 ATS (33-7 straight-up) when they rush for 120+ yards. They have done this in 40 out of 55 games (73%). Seattle will run early and often with both Lynch and with Wilson out of the read-option. New England hasn't faced much read-option and they may not be 100% prepared for the quickness and smarts that Wilson brings to the table. I expect him and Lynch to rack up a lot on the ground. And, Wilson has proven over and over that he can make the key pass when he is asked to do so. Meanwhile, I expect Tom Brady to struggle relative to what most expect out of him. We have seen over the years that defenses that can get him off his spot can shut him down. The Giants did it two Super Bowls in a row and Seattle has the defense to do it here. If we look back this season at a team that really shut down Brady and this offense, look no further than the Jets in week 16. New York held New England to just 17 points in that game. They did by - you guessed it - getting Brady off his spot. The Jets pressured him and forced bad throws. When Brady was not pressured this season, his passer rating was 113.6. When he was pressured, that plummeted to 51.4. I believe the Seahawks will bring the heat and he will under-perform much like he did in his last two Super Bowl appearances. I don't see Brady going off here and I think it's very unlikely that they can get out of the low 20s in points. That's not a good sign for them. Since 2009, New England is 4-31-2 ATS when scoring under 26 points including 0-26-1 when they score under 22 points in a game.

Oh and did I mention that defense wins Super Bowls? The #1 defense has been to the Super Bowl 16 times in 48 years. That #1 defense has won 13 of the 16 games. Meanwhile, great offenses are just the opposite. Since the start of this century, the #1 offense has made it to the big game seven times. These teams averaged well over 30 points per game. But in those Super Bowls? They managed to score an average of 17.9 points per game and winning just once in seven tries! When the #1 offense meets the #1 defense, we get what you might expect. In 2003 the Oakland Raiders and their #1 offense lost to the Buccaneers and their #1 defense 48-21. Last year the #1 offensive team, the Broncos, lost 43-8 to the #1 defensive team in the Seahawks. It's been downright ugly for the top offenses.

There is always the Brady/Belichick factor. The hoody is brilliant and willing to do whatever it takes to win. This combination has been lethal to bet against over the years as a whole. But, what the public has quickly forgotten is how these two have done in the playoffs recently. It's been a decade since the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Since that win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, New England is 7-12 ATS in the playoffs. Over the past six years, they are 6-5 straight-up and 4-7 against the number. And in their last two Super Bowls, with arguably the best quarterback and best coach of all time, and two weeks to prepare, the Pats are 0-2. So, this dynamic duo is certainly not invincible.