Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

New England went UNDER for the third game in a row with its 10-3 win over the New York Jets on Sunday. The last two stayed UNDER by an average of 18 points and the Patriots have allowed a total of just 23 points their last three games. The Jets were completely shut down and had to punt 10 times, totalling just 77 yards of offense. New England is #4 in the NFL in yards allowed and #2 in scoring defense giving up just 16.9 points per game. Minnesota allows 23.1 points (even after last week's debacle), and the Patriots score 21.3 points per contest. The Pats will take a clue from the Dallas defense and pressure Kirk Cousins all night long as he was sacked seven times by the Cowboys. The UNDER is 14-3 in the Patriots' past 17 games after they scored fewer than 15 points their previous game and they are 7-2 UNDER their past nine November games. Both teams have a short week to get their offenses back on track. Take the UNDER as a Max Play. 

Minnesota has a winning record at home, but is 2-2-1 on the road and heads to a tough venue this week. In their five road games they've allowed 25, 17, 21, 38 and 29 points, part of a 5-1 run OVER the total away from home. The Vikings have failed to cover six of seven against winning teams and face a New England squad that is 5-0 straight-up at home. The Patriots came out of their bye last week with a healthy offensive line for the first time in a while and looked strong, blasting the Jets on the road, 27-13. They also got star TE Rob Gronkowski on the field and he made a big difference. The Patriots are on a 36-15-2 ATS run, as well as 36-15 ATS at home. New England is also 82-40-2 ATS after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. This is a great situational spot for the talented home team. And with both offenses in the top 14 in total yards, back home field in an offensive show. Play New England and the OVER.

Since the 2008 season, the New England offense never needed a home field to put up a ton of points. Over the six year period, they are the highest scoring road team in the NFL at an average of 28.4 points per game. Needless to say that after a lackluster performance in Miami, where Tom Brady is now 7-8, I certainly expect a big bounce back by the Pats offense in this one. Minnesota has to feel good about going to St. Louis and putting up 34 points against one of the league's top defense. I think that the Vikings offense will be even more comfortable and confident at home, and I look for them to have success vs. the New England defense that looked vulnerable against a pedestrian offense last week. Remember that the Vikings scored 30+ at home in half their games a year ago, and they appear to be better this season. The Pats are an even more dynamic offensive team on turf where they are 37-14 to the OVER in their last 51. In the Belichick era, the Pats are 11-1 OVER following a double-digit upset loss. This one flies OVER the total.

The New England Patriots have not been the same team since trading Randy Moss. Sure, Tom Brady is still there, and they have a slew of possession receivers. But, they lack the stretch-the-field ability now. Last week Tom Brady threw for just 159 yards in a 23-20 win over San Diego. The Pats offense mustered all of 179 yards of offense in that game. But, the Patriots scored 23 points and won, masking the fact that it was an awful offensive performance. Minnesota is a team that is better than their record. They are a desperate team that is going to come out with a lot of emotion for this game. When things hit rock bottom as they have here (2-4 record, coming off a bitter loss, and their QB ailing), oftentimes it's time to back a team. This number is inflated with Brett Favre nursing ankle issues. But knowing Favre, he will come out and somehow produce a big game, especially against a New England secondary that hasn't been able to stop anyone yet. New England ranks 30th in the league in pass defense, giving up 282 yards per game through the air. New England is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 90 or less on the ground in their last game. The Vikings have come up big after a straight-up loss, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in that situation. I like the Vikings to at least keep this close. I also like the OVER in what I see to be a shootout. New England is finding ways to score, averaging 29.5 ppg. The Vikings are playing to the OVER on the road vs. a team with a winning home record, going 40-21 to the OVER in their last 61. They are also 13-4 OVER the past three seasons vs. teams that average 24+ points per game. The Vikings are also 44-18 OVER on the road following an ATS loss. I like the Vikings and the OVER here.

One of our two big 4-star plays last week was on the Vikings getting 6.5 against the Seahawks. They went out an trounced Seattle 31-13. Are they getting respect now? Not enough. There is a new word circulating through Minnesota, and it is called "defense." Something that has been missing for quite some time. There is also something else that has changed, and that is an offense that is less predictable, and much lower risk. Culpepper to Moss was what this offense was all about in years past, but now we have Brad Johnson, connecting on 63% with just 4 picks, and spreading the ball around. Brad Childress has brought a defense to go with it, and the Vikings have become a balanced team, on both sides of the ball. The Bears did not get into the endzone for 58 minutes, and the way that team has been lighting up the scoreboard, one needs to take notice. New England is coming in with a 3-0 road mark, but truly has not been tested the way they will be here. The 3-0 is made up of trips to NY vs the Jets ranked #30 in defense, to Cinncinnati (ranked #18), and to Buffalo (ranked #14). The two solid defenses this team has faced (the true indicator as to what to expect here) were Denver (#4) and Miami (#6). Versus the Broncos, the Pats were held to 7 points at home, and vs. Miami, also at home, they had just 13 points midway through the 4th quarter. Minnesota is ranked #7, and this is a place, be it Sunday afternoon or Monday night, at which it is very difficult to win. The Vikes have a long standing attitude about the underdog role in their building. They have answered to the tune of 21-7-1 ATS and 16-13 SU as dog. New England is a pretty banged up team, with 12 players listed as questionable, including Tom Brady with an ailing shoulder. The hype, the public, the 3-0 road record, the 5-1 start by New England makes this an even more inviting spot for Minnesota - a team the public is not yet backing. The Vikings have met teams in this dog role that are a combined 126-44, while the Vikes teams that compiled this mark were just 86-85. The best part of it is that they save their best for the best! Take a look at the last 10 games in which they were instilled as home dogs to some great teams with great records coming in: Kansas City (12-2 and 10-4), Green Bay (8-1 and 4-1, 3-0), Denver (10-1), San Francisco (13-2, 11-2, 13-2) and Chicago (9-1). Those have been the best 10, and guess what? 10-0 ATS and 7-3 SU! Now New England comes in 5-1? Wrong spot for New England. This is a better Minnesota team, and they will be ready to bring it! Vikes here.