Las Vegas Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles

The biggest disappointment in the AFC has been the Oakland Raiders' offense, which has talent but decided to take the year off. The Raiders rank #21 in points (20.1 points per game) and #19 in total yards as RB Marshawn Lynch never got going on a ground game ranked #25. Star WR Amari Cooper was limited in Friday's practice with an ankle injury, leaving questions as to whether he'd take the field against the Eagles. They've lost two in a row scoring 15 and 17 points, part of a 5-0 run UNDER the total, and they are 9-5 UNDER for the season. At least the defense is playing well, allowing 18.2 points per game the last four contests. Raiders DE Khalil Mack has collected at least one sack in five straight games. And speaking of defenses playing well, the Eagles are fifth in total yards allowed, tenth in points allowed (19.9 points per game), with the league's top-ranked rush defense that is permitting just 71.5 yards per game. Philadelphia is down to its backup QB in Nick Foles, stepping in for injured Carson Wentz. They can run the football, which chews up yards and the clock, averaging 140.5 yards rushing per contest (second int he NFL). The Eagles are 43-20 UNDER the total after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. And with freezing temperatures tonight in Philly, look for more defense than offense. Play this game to stay UNDER.

The Oakland Raiders are 3-4 on the season, but unfortunately for them they reside in the AFC West, and that is just good enough for last place. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 3-5, but sit just one game off the pace in the NFC East. The Eagles lost Nick Foles last week to a concussion that occurred the week before, and now Michael Vick is down with a hamstring injury. Foles will be back in at QB Sunday and he has been the better choice with a passer rating over 100. He has thrown six TDs to zero INTs on the season. Oakland does have three wins on the season, but two of those were against teams that have combined for a 2-13 record on the year. The problem is that the Oakland offense has not scored more than 21 points in any game this year (27 vs. SD on a defensive TD). But, they have allowed 21 or more to four of five teams - aside from their two wins against 2-13 teams. Philadelphia is capable of scoring here, and I don't think Oakland has the tools to keep up. The Raiders are just 1-7 straight up the past three seasons vs. teams at .400 or worse. Take Philly for the upset win.

The Raiders are certainly a mess right now.  They come in at 1-4, with their lone win coming versus 0-5 Kansas City. The Eagles returned from their bye with an easy win over the 0-5 Bucs. This one looks too easy on the surface. After all, the Raiders were just smoked by the Giants and the Eagles figure to be an NFC Title contender. But laying 14.5 points on the road in the NFL is about as hard as it gets. These teams are certainly far apart in talent, but they are also far apart in another important category luck. The Eagles are crushing teams, but are they really as good as their stats would indicate? In their three wins (all big ones), they were the beneficiary of a 12-3 turnover margin! In the one game in which the ball didn't bounce their way (a 1-4 turnover deficit vs. New Orleans), they lost by 26 points. I'm not saying Philadelphia is a bad team, but their value is inflated due to turnovers. On the flipside, Oakland has been on the losing end of the turnover battle. In their four losses, they have coughed up the ball 12 times while getting only 6 in return. In the one game where they took care of the ball, they won. So, we see a pattern. Turnovers are hard to predict but the safest prediction for any given game is about even. And, if that happens in this game, Philly won't be quite as daunting and Oakland won't be quite as bad. Can Philly let down here? Sure. They have three consecutive division opponents awaiting them after this one and may not put forth an all-out 60 minute effort. The Eagles have displayed this "no-show" tendency with a 3-8 ATS mark vs. teams with a losing record home record. The Raiders certainly have incentive here to show up after last week's debacle. They allowed over 30 points last week and have come back off such a poor performance by covering six of eight in their next game after surrendering the dreadful 30+. They also may find some fire from Antonio Pierce's post game comments that stated publicly, the Raiders were displaying a complete lack of effort. Sometimes that is all a team needs to get up off the mat and play their best game of the year - something I wouldn't expect from the Eagles this week. This is the first time Philly has had to travel since week one - and it's a long haul to the West coast. Since 1983, underdogs of 10.5+ points that are being out-gained by 100+ yards per game off back-to-back games in which they were out-gained by 100+ yards are a stellar 25-7 ATS. I'm going with the Raiders here to stay inside this huge number at home.

August 8th - Hall of Fame Game, Canton Ohio. Unlike last year when I didn't have an opinion on the opening game, I think we have been handed a gift in this year's Hall of Fame Game. Next week I'll be sharing my preseason NFL betting philosophy in detail but for now I'll give you a taste as it relates to this game. The preseason is not about stats as much as it is about motivation and situations. Starters don't play long in most preseason games so forget which team is better here. Instead, look at who wants it more. Who is motivated to play hard? Both teams are off bad seasons so they both probably want to start off 2006 on a good note. But, Oakland's season was worse. Many predicted them to be much improved in 2005 with the addition of Randy Moss. Well, they won 4 games. Philadelphia won 6 but they had T.O. to blame and at least subconciously, they know they will be good again this year. They don't have a whole lot to prove in the preseason. Oakland's situation was so bad that they fired their coach and brought in Art Shell. Shell desperately wants to instill a winning attitude and tradition from the start. I think he'll take this game more seriously than will Andy Reid. He doesn't have an established starting quarterback like Philadelphia does with McNabb. How many snaps does McNabb really need? In contrast, Aaron Brooks is new to this offense so there's a good chance he'll go a bit longer as he needs the reps. I keep detailed stats on coaches tendancies and records in the preseason and Reid has shown that he just doesn't care about getting victories in the preseason. He's got an 8-15 record in exhibition games as a head coach. Underdogs playing against "bad" preseason coaches like Reid are often excellent bets. Also, backing teams that have had back-to-back poor regular seasons (Oakland won 5 games in 2004) are also good bets as the franchise is actually trying in the preseason. I think Oakland is much more motivated and should win this game outright. With the 3 point insurance, I like the underdog here.