Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders Point Spread Picks

I had Arizona as a road underdog against these same Raiders last week, and it cashed outright. Houston is thinning out again tonight. DeMeco Ryans spent the early part of the week promising his healthy players would suit up, then reversed course after Tuesday's joint practice left him satisfied enough to sit Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, and Derek Stingley. The plan now is backups across Houston's defense, with C.J. Stroud good for a handful of snaps behind the top offensive line before Davis Mills takes over again. Las Vegas isn't offering much more continuity. Klint Kubiak has been rotating three quarterbacks through practice all week, and Kirk Cousins won't stick around long once the game starts. Aidan O'Connell looks ticketed for the bulk of tonight's snaps, with the Raiders saving a longer look at rookie Fernando Mendoza for their home finale next week. Two offenses built around backups trying to execute behind shuffled fronts rarely put together the kind of clean, extended drives that push a preseason total. Houston scored one touchdown in its opener, and Las Vegas managed just 14 points of its own. The number here still prices two starting lineups that mostly won't be on the field. That gap is the game tonight. The UNDER is the play tonight, and this shouldn't be a sweat.

Houston has won six in a row, but the question is: can the Texans cover a two-touchdown-plus spread against the Raiders without looking ahead to two huge matchups in the coming weeks against the Chargers and Indianapolis? Pete Carroll has not given up on his Las Vegas squad as he desperately tries to salvage something from his inaugural season with the team to save his job and his legacy. Kenny Pickett was a disaster last week filling in for Geno Smith, but Smith is expected to be back under center for this week's game. The OVER is 4-0 in the Raiders' past four games after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game, and they are 6-1 OVER after totaling fewer than 150 yards passing. The Texans easily went OVER last week as they defeated Arizona 40-20. Grab the huge points with the Raiders and the OVER.

Oakland has been a bad road team, losing 34-14 at Minnesota and comes off a 42-24 loss at Green Bay. The Raiders are on a 5-15-1 spread run on the road, including 3-12-1 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. Oakland has no defense at #28 in points allowed (27.5 per game), #23 in yards surrendered (376.5 pg), second-worst against the pass, allowing 289.8 yards per contest. They face a talented and balanced Houston squad that won at Kansas City (31-24), whipped Atlanta (53-32) and lost to the Saints in a shootout (30-28) when Drew Brees was healthy. QB Deshaun Watson (13 TDs, five INTs) leads an attack that will tear up this bad Oakland secondary. Play Houston.

You have to feel for Oakland, a team that had not had a winning record since the 2002 season, and then started 12-3 only to see their hopes dashed with the loss of QB Derek Carr. They appeared to be on their way to a bye in the first round before losing their most important cog in Carr. It proceeded to get worse last week as backup Matt McGloin was injured as well. They will now go with third string QB Connor Cook. This is the first time ever an NFL rookie is making his frist start in the playoffs. Last week without Carr, the previously potent Raiders attack did not get in the end-zone in a 24-6 loss at Denver. Houston has some QB issues of their own, and the once benched Brock Osweiler will be at QB for the injured Tom Savage. There is little to hope for offensively in this game, and the biggest edge on the field will be the Houston defense vs. the Raiders offense being led by a #3 QB on the road. Houston has held opponentws to just 16.3 points per game at home this season. There have been some good QBs coming to Houston this season in Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford and Phillip Rivers. But, none left with more than 21 points - most far less than that. It is going to be very difficult for the Raiders to find the end-zone, and Houston has managed no more than 27 points in any of their home games his season, but will surely get enough here to move on to the next round. Houston is 14-5 ATS under head coach Bill O'Brien as a favorite. Play Houston and the UNDER.