Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

Detroit has been plagued by bad defense and turnovers and the Lions got away with it against teams like Las Vegas and Chicago, but it caught up with them in losing 29-22 to Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are No. 24 in the NFL in points allowed per game (23.5) and No. 20 in pass defense and they have allowed 31 points per game their past three, including 26 against a terrible Bears offense and they were fortunate to win that game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS its past five and New Orleans has covered four of five as a home underdog and the Saints are 21-6 as dogs of 3.5-10.0 points. The Saints defense actually has kept the team in games this season and it is No. 13 in yards allowed and No. 7 in pass defense. The Saints are 7-3 UNDER their past 10 games and 7-0 UNDER their past seven December games. Also, New Orleans is 10-1 UNDER versus NFC teams dating to last season. Detroit is 4-1 UNDER following a loss. Take the Saints and the UNDER.

Detroit pulled out a win at Arizona to snap an 11-game losing streak, but don't get too excited about the Lions just yet. They still have Matt Patricia as the coach, and his record with the Lions is 10-24-1 straight up and 16-19 ATS. Detroit's defense is ranked #28 in the league in yards allowed and #30 in rushing yards allowed. New Orleans is 1-2, but the Saints have played a difficult schedule, opening with Tampa Bay before going to Las Vegas for the Raiders' first home game in their new city, and then last week against Green Bay. Drew Brees doesn't have the arm strength he used to have, but he still finished 29 of 36 for 288 yards as he transitions into a shorter passing game. The Saints gained 122 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry against Green Bay, and they are averaging 29.3 points per game. The last time these teams met was in 2017, and New Orleans won 52-38 as a six-point favorite. The Saints are 12-2 ATS the last 14 years in Week 4, and they are 11-4 ATS their last 15 games overall. Also, New Orleans is 37-15 ATS its last 52 October games and 35-17 ATS its last 52 road games. Detroit is 3-11 ATS its last 14 games and 3-9 ATS against the NFC. Also, Detroit has covered just two of its last seven home contests. Lay the points with the Saints.

Detroit has won the last three meetings with the Saints, including 28-13 last December as a 6.5-point underdog on the road. The Lions need to bounce back from Sunday's loss to Carolina when they held the Panthers to just 28 rushing yards, but couldn't overcome Cam Newton's best game of the season so far. Matthew Stafford finished 23-of-35 for 229 yards and he and Drew Brees have similar stats this year with both throwing for more than 1,100 yards. Stafford has a minor ankle injury, but is expected to play in this one. New Orleans had the week off after beating Miami in London and the Saints have covered just once in their last four games after a win of at least 14 points. Three of the last four meetings have gone OVER and the Saints went OVER three straight before the London game. New Orleans is 5-0 OVER its last five games against the NFC and six of its last seven overall dating to last season. Also, the Saints are 11-3-1 OVER their last 15 home contests. Detroit's only other loss besides the Panthers involved the controversial last-second call against Atlanta. Take the points with the Lions and the OVER.

Don't look now, but the amazing Lions are in first place! QB Matthew Stafford might not win MVP, but he's had an impressive campaign with 19 TDs and only five picks. Detroit's defense has been bend-but-don't break, allowing 20 or fewer points in five straight. The Lions are on a 17-6 run UNDER the total away from home. They face a weak New Orleans defense, #26 in yards allowed, #27 against the pass, and #30 allowing 27.9 points per contest. The defense has been getting healthy, allowing an average of 18.6 points in the last six games, compared to their average of 33.6 for the first five games. Still, they are woefully short on defensive talent. Detroit prefers a ball control, offensive-style to keep Drew Brees off the field, and New Orleans has gone five straight games UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. The Saints are favored, but have a losing record, and the Lions have more than enough to keep this close in a defensive battle. Play Detroit and UNDER the total.

This is an indoor game featuring two strong quarterbacks and two lousy defenses. Detroit is #28 in the NFL defensively in points allowed (25.8 points per game) and faces a high octane Saints offense. The Lions are 8-2 OVER the total against a team with a losing home record. At least Detroit can throw the football when they fall behind (which will be early) with QB Matt Stafford (24 TDs, 13 INTs), WR Calvin Johnson (981 yards), and WR Golden Tate. They got run over by the Rams last week, and the OVER is 25-11 after Detroit allows more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Lions are also 15-5 OVER after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their last contest. They face a New Orleans offense that is loaded, scoring 24 and 38 the last two contests. New Orleans is #4 in the NFL in yards on offense and #11 in points. QB Drew Brees  (25 TDs, 11 INTs) threw a pair of touchdown passes to Marques Colston to help New Orleans top the Bucs, 24-17. The Saints converted 12 of their 17 third downs, but can New Orleans stop anybody? The Saints are third-worst in the NFL at defending the pass surrendering 278.8 yards per game, #31 in total yards allowed, and dead last giving up 30.5 points per game. They are still using Brandon Browner at cornerback, which is a mistake as he was the worst free agent signing in the offseason. He can't cover and is good for a few pass interference penalties per game -- sometimes even per drive! Play this one OVER the total.