Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

Detroit's offense enters the season ranked among the best units in the league, with Jared Goff running an attack that finished second in scoring punch a year ago, and that's the problem for anyone taking Detroit at a big number: this same roster carries a defense that was the clear soft spot on a team eliminated from the playoff race for the first time since 2022. Kelvin Sheppard is back for his second year running that defense, so this isn't a new coordinator learning on the fly; it's a known issue heading into year two. New Orleans counters with Tyler Shough, who closed his rookie season strong enough that the Saints handed him the job outright for 2026 with no offseason competition. A confident, ascending quarterback against a defense with real holes is exactly the matchup that keeps a game inside a touchdown, and Detroit's own offensive firepower against a Saints defense still finding its footing points to scoring from both sides. Take New Orleans with the points, and take the OVER on the total.

Detroit has been plagued by bad defense and turnovers and the Lions got away with it against teams like Las Vegas and Chicago, but it caught up with them in losing 29-22 to Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are No. 24 in the NFL in points allowed per game (23.5) and No. 20 in pass defense and they have allowed 31 points per game their past three, including 26 against a terrible Bears offense and they were fortunate to win that game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS its past five and New Orleans has covered four of five as a home underdog and the Saints are 21-6 as dogs of 3.5-10.0 points. The Saints defense actually has kept the team in games this season and it is No. 13 in yards allowed and No. 7 in pass defense. The Saints are 7-3 UNDER their past 10 games and 7-0 UNDER their past seven December games. Also, New Orleans is 10-1 UNDER versus NFC teams dating to last season. Detroit is 4-1 UNDER following a loss. Take the Saints and the UNDER.

Detroit pulled out a win at Arizona to snap an 11-game losing streak, but don't get too excited about the Lions just yet. They still have Matt Patricia as the coach, and his record with the Lions is 10-24-1 straight up and 16-19 ATS. Detroit's defense is ranked #28 in the league in yards allowed and #30 in rushing yards allowed. New Orleans is 1-2, but the Saints have played a difficult schedule, opening with Tampa Bay before going to Las Vegas for the Raiders' first home game in their new city, and then last week against Green Bay. Drew Brees doesn't have the arm strength he used to have, but he still finished 29 of 36 for 288 yards as he transitions into a shorter passing game. The Saints gained 122 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry against Green Bay, and they are averaging 29.3 points per game. The last time these teams met was in 2017, and New Orleans won 52-38 as a six-point favorite. The Saints are 12-2 ATS the last 14 years in Week 4, and they are 11-4 ATS their last 15 games overall. Also, New Orleans is 37-15 ATS its last 52 October games and 35-17 ATS its last 52 road games. Detroit is 3-11 ATS its last 14 games and 3-9 ATS against the NFC. Also, Detroit has covered just two of its last seven home contests. Lay the points with the Saints.

Detroit has won the last three meetings with the Saints, including 28-13 last December as a 6.5-point underdog on the road. The Lions need to bounce back from Sunday's loss to Carolina when they held the Panthers to just 28 rushing yards, but couldn't overcome Cam Newton's best game of the season so far. Matthew Stafford finished 23-of-35 for 229 yards and he and Drew Brees have similar stats this year with both throwing for more than 1,100 yards. Stafford has a minor ankle injury, but is expected to play in this one. New Orleans had the week off after beating Miami in London and the Saints have covered just once in their last four games after a win of at least 14 points. Three of the last four meetings have gone OVER and the Saints went OVER three straight before the London game. New Orleans is 5-0 OVER its last five games against the NFC and six of its last seven overall dating to last season. Also, the Saints are 11-3-1 OVER their last 15 home contests. Detroit's only other loss besides the Panthers involved the controversial last-second call against Atlanta. Take the points with the Lions and the OVER.

Don't look now, but the amazing Lions are in first place! QB Matthew Stafford might not win MVP, but he's had an impressive campaign with 19 TDs and only five picks. Detroit's defense has been bend-but-don't break, allowing 20 or fewer points in five straight. The Lions are on a 17-6 run UNDER the total away from home. They face a weak New Orleans defense, #26 in yards allowed, #27 against the pass, and #30 allowing 27.9 points per contest. The defense has been getting healthy, allowing an average of 18.6 points in the last six games, compared to their average of 33.6 for the first five games. Still, they are woefully short on defensive talent. Detroit prefers a ball control, offensive-style to keep Drew Brees off the field, and New Orleans has gone five straight games UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. The Saints are favored, but have a losing record, and the Lions have more than enough to keep this close in a defensive battle. Play Detroit and UNDER the total.