Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions

Detroit was a missed extra point away from getting its first win of the season before ending the game in a 16-16 tie against the Steelers. The Lions found a running game, and that will be important as Jared Goff is playing through injuries. He wasn't very effective up to this point anyway. De'Andre Swift rushed for 130 yards against Pittsburgh, and the Lions actually improved to 5-4 ATS. Cleveland hit rock bottom in a 45-7 loss at New England, and QB Baker Mayfield has serious shoulder and knee injuries, but he says he will play this week. The Browns probably would be better off with a healthy Case Keenum, but it still wouldn't matter if the Browns defense plays as it did on Sunday, allowing 452 total yards. Nick Chubb is likely to be back this week after missing last week's game due to COVID-19 protocol. Cleveland has lost four of its last six games and is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. Detroit has gone UNDER six of its last seven games, and Cleveland is 5-1 UNDER its last six versus losing teams. The Lions have bounced back to be 4-0 ATS after allowing at least 350 total yards their previous game and the Browns are 1-11 ATS their last 12 after recording fewer than 250 yards their previous game. Play the Lions ATS for a Max Play and the UNDER.

Detroit has lost all three games and hasn't shown any signs of getting better after a 24-20 loss to Buffalo that was made even worse by injuries to linebacker Jarrad Davis and center Frank Ragnow. Matthew Stafford was 12-of-19 for 137 yards and a touchdown in what probably is his only appearance of the preseason. Newly-signed Josh Johnson finished 5-of-10 for 71 yards and David Fales completed 3-of-8 for 22 yards. The Lions had a chance for a winning drive, but it was thwarted by a fumble. Matt Patricia is 1-6 both straight-up and ATS in the preseason and he doesn't appear to care much about winning this time of the year. Cleveland lost in the final seconds on a Tampa Bay field goal as Baker Mayfield struggled although he was missing most of his key teammates who were held out of the game. Detroit lost 35-17 to the Browns in last year's final preseason game and the Lions have gone OVER five of seven since Patricia took over. Play the Browns and the OVER.

Young Cleveland has been stockpiling high draft picks for a while and the Browns are playing like a young, hungry team with plenty to prove. They've outscored opponents by +13 this preseason while the defense has been great, allowing 9.4 points per game. In their only other road game they won 20-10 at the NY Giants as coach Hue Jackson is on a 6-1 SU/ATS preseason run. The QB rotation of Baker Mayfield and Tyrod Taylor is playing well and the team has rushed for 138 and 164 yards the last two contests. They face another rebuilding squad in the Detroit Lions, who have a losing record through three games getting while outscored by -16 points. New Coach Matt Patricia came from the Patriots, where preseason is largely used for evaluation and getting various players reps. And there are still plenty of weak areas, as Detroit's down-to-down pass rush has been unimpressive, pass protection on offense has been a problem, along with red-zone production. Their QBs have been sacked 11 times in three games while the last two weeks the defense allowed 30 points in each game. Play Cleveland.

Winless Cleveland heads indoors to Detroit with a faltering defense at #28 in the NFL in points allowed (25.3 points per game). The Browns are regressing on defense, allowing 33 points in two of their last three contests. Cleveland is on an 8-2 run OVER the total on the road. The over is also 26-5 when NFL teams like the Browns that are averaging fewer than 17 points per game, after scoring less than 17 points in two straight games. They run into a good quarterback in Matt Stafford (14 TDs, 4 INTs). The Lions are riding high after a 30-17 win at Green Bay. Tackle Taylor Decker will play and is a huge plus on the offensive line, on his second week of practice in his return from shoulder surgery which kept him out almost five months. The offense has exploded for 899 yards the last two weeks. But Detroit's secondary is weak at #27 in passing yards allowed, and #20 in points surrendered. The Lions are 21-8 OVER the total at home against secondaries allowing seven or more passing yards per play and this total is too low. Play the OVER. 

Cleveland has a new coach, Mike Pettine, and first-year coaches often want to impress, even in preseason. He also has a tremendous defense, #8 in the NFL against the pass last year and #18 against the run. And on offense, the QB rotation is impressive with Brian Hoyer listed as the No. 1 quarterback, followed by Johnny Manziel, veteran Tyler Thigpen, and rookie Connor Shaw. This defense was outstanding in preseason last year as the team went 3-1 SU/ATS allowing 19, six, and 16 points in the wins (17 points per game overall). One of those wins was over this Detroit team 24-6, with an edge in yards 313-217. Most of the Cleveland passes were thrown by Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell, both gone, so the QB situation is much better this season. The Lions also have a new coach in mild-mannered Jim Caldwell. He's a disciple of Tony Dungy, who never cared about preseason. And note that Caldwell is 4-8 ATS in August as a head coach. The Lions have some defensive injury concerns with CB Darius Slay and DE Ziggy Ansah out. Cleveland is 4-0 ATS the last four years in week one of the preseason, so grab the improved dog and play the Browns.