Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Chargers Point Spread Picks

Chicago is flying high after a 30-12 rout of Las Vegas. But let's curb the enthuisasm. They're still a last-place team. After a 40-20 upset of Washington, the Bears lost to Minnesota, 19-13. The offense has allowed the third-most sacks (27), ranks 18th in total yards along with being the third-worst team on third down (29.55%). The Bears are 177-140 UNDER the total as an underdog, plus 40-23 UNDER on the road against teams that average 24+ points. The Los Angeles offense has cooled off, losing two in a row scoring 17 points each time. The Chargers are 61-39 UNDER the total at home when the total is 45.5+, as well as 58-38 UNDER at home versus pass defenses that allow 61% completions or higher. Play Chicago/Los Angeles UNDER the total. 

Chicago's vaunted defense has struggled the last two games in losses to Oakland and New Orleans, but fortunately the Bears get the demoralized Chargers, who lost a gut-wrenching game last week against the Titans. The Chargers are averaging 20.0 points and they are #27 in rushing yardage and with a 2-5 record. Their only wins were against the Colts in overtime and the hapless Dolphins. What's worse is that the Chargers allowed Tennessee 403 total yards, which is a season-high for the Titans, who had been struggling mightily on offense prior to that game. Philip Rivers went 24-of-38 for 329 yards and two touchdowns but his team was foiled again by turnovers inside the red zone. The Chargers are 1-5-2 ATS dating to last season and the Bears are 17-7-1 ATS their last 25 home games and 7-2 ATS against teams with losing records. Also, Chicago has easily gone OVER its last two games and this is a relatively low posted total for this matchup. The Bears abandonment of the running game didn't work against the Saints, so look for more rushing attempts that will give Mitch Trubisky some variety in the offense and more for a defense to think about. Play the Bears and the OVER.

Both of these clubs are desperate for a win with the Bears at 2-5 and the Chargers at 2-6. San Diego has out-gained seven of their eight opponents, but have just two wins to show for it. The offense has been able to move the ball on every team they have faced and won't have trouble against the Bears' stop unit that surrenders 29 points per game on the season. Combine that with a San Diego defense that is highly suspect, and a Bears offense that has generated 269 passing yards on average the last four weeks, and we have the potential for a shootout here. The Bears are 19-7 to the OVER in their last 26 on the road, while the Chargers are now 10-2 to the OVER in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. In his head coaching career, John Fox is 21-9 OVER following a close loss by less than a touchdown. He's also 22-9 OVER on the road vs. good offerensive teams like San Diego (teams averaging 5.7+ yards per play). Make the play on the OVER in this one.

The San Diego Chargers finally got out of the gate quick. Unfortunately, they are at it again, having lost four straight games, three as the favorite. The Chargers have allowed 30 points per game in those losses. And, the team is hobbled by injuries. The Bears have been playing as good as anyone of late winning four straight and five of six. So the obvious pick is Chicago here, right? Not so fast. The NFL is a buy-low, sell high league and in this game we can do both. The Bears were very good against the run last season, but have really slipped this season. They rank No. 30 allowing opponents over 5 yards per carry. Ryan Matthews is getting healthy and could have an impact here. The Bears have suddenly become more offensive, but a shootout with the Chargers is not in their best interests. The Chargers can score quickly as the Packers found out, and a 21-point lead melted very quickly. The Chargers have been bad for four straight weeks, but in spite of that they are one game out in the AFC West. Due to a scheduling quirk, the Bears will play their next four games vs. the AFC West. The Chargers have tons of talent, and if they limit their mistakes here they will win this game outright because they are the better team on paper. Rivers is at his best as an underdog, going 12-7 ATS for his career as a dog. The public is all over the Bears and the line is going in the opposite direction which is always a good sign for the underdog. The Chargers often dissapoint in games they are supposed to win but they thrive in this role at 22-8-3 ATS in their last 33 as a dog. This line is in the sweet spot for Norv Turner as well as his teams are 19-7 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. In their last 19 games after scoring 25+ points in back-to-back games, the Bears are 3-16 ATS. Is Chicago really as good as they seem of late? Consider they have benefited from a 2-to-1 turnover margin advantage in their last four games (12-6). That sort of luck doesn't continue forever. The Chargers are also 6-1-1 to the OVER in their last eight on the road, and have played four straight as a dog without an UNDER. The Bears are 25-10 to the OVER in their last 35 as a home favorite, and overall are 8-2 to the OVER in their last 10 home games. The Bears are also 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight as a favorite. The Bears could be over-confident enough to get in a shootout here, and that will backfire. Take San Diego and play the OVER.

In our season wins predictions, we predict a tough road for the Bears in 2007. But, we like them to cover the spread here vs. the San Diego Super Chargers. Both of these teams are very motivated with each suffering a dissapointing final loss last season. We are no fan of Rex Grossman. But if there's a time to back him, it's when he hasn't yet had time to "think" too much. Last season, Chicago struggled late, but early on they were lights-out, outscoring opponents 221-69 in their first seven games. The Chargers are a very talented team. Inexplicably, they revamped the entire coaching staff after a 14-2 season. While it may not hamper them, it likely won't help. Chicago's defense really fell apart last year after losing two key starters mid-season. Tommie Harris is back and healthy and we look for Chicago's defensive dominance to return this year. This defense is going to be "up" for the challenge of facing LaDanian Tomlinson. And let's not forget the Bears have won 15 of their last 19 games straight-up including 7-1 on the road. They scored a league-high 30.4 points per game on the road last season. San Diego meanwhile is just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Look for a hard-fought battle vs. a blowout, and for the Bears to cover this large number.