2007 NFL Predictions Season Team Previews and Over/Under Picks
Season Totals picks 72% (18-7) combined in 2005 and 2006!
Each NFL preseason we predict how NFL teams will do in the upcoming season. We view these team win totals bets to be one of the best NFL betting opportunities. This is because so few people put in the time and effort to make these types of NFL picks. And, of those that do, we would venture to say that no one looks at it as scientifically as we do. No one puts in the effort we do.
These season total picks become part of my official NFL picks that hit 58% in 2005 and 55% in 2006. Over the past six years, we have racked up 96 units of profit overall with our premium NFL picks. $100 bettors have made nearly $10,000 and dime players have taken down $96,000 in profit. Make sure you are getting our free NFL picks via our newsletter.
2007 NFL Predictions - Team Win Totals
This year, we have predictions for 11 of the teams that differ significantly from the NFL futures odds. Below we share for free our five 1-unit and 2-unit picks (on a scale of 1 to 5 units).
Want our top rated 3 and 4 unit picks? Subscribers to any NFL premium package (weekly, monthly, season) during the preseason will receive our six highest rated (3 and 4 unit plays) picks. Our highest rated picks have gone 7-1 the past two years so don't miss out on those. Check out our premium NFL packages now.
Without further adieu, here are our 2007 NFL Team Wins Predictions (1 and 2 unit plays only). They are based on the NFL futures lines and odds here.
Chicago UNDER 10.5 Wins (2 units)
The Bears came out of the gates in 2006 winning seven straight in convincing fashion. They outscored opponents 221-69 in those seven games. In their final twelve games of the season, they outscored opponents by a margin of 289-253. That's quite a drop in performance. How will Chicago perform this year after getting to the Super Bowl and then getting trounced? We think they could fold. NFL teams seemed to have figure out this "vaunted" defense during the second half of the 2006 season. While allowing 9.9 points allowed per game through seven games, they gave up 21.1 per game after that. And, their defensive coordinator left in the off-season. Rex Grossman proved in the playoffs that he isn't cut out for this job. Sure, he can have some big games. But, he doesn't have the arm required. More importantly, he doesn't have the smarts. He is not football smart. He makes very poor decisions. He doesn't pay attention enough while on the field. He is the exact antithesis to Peyton Manning in this respect. Why Lovie Smith put the Super Bowl in his hands will remain one of the world's great unanswered questions for years to come. But, the fact is, he did and Rex blew it. Mark our words: Rex Grossman won't be an NFL starter within a year or two. This team also lost it's top rusher and is left with an unproven Cedric Benson and an aging offensive line. Without a great running game, this offense is in trouble. If Chicago's defense performs like the finished the 2006 year, this team could be in real big trouble. Getting to 11 wins, knowing they have to face New Orleans, Seattle, Dallas, Denver, Philly and San Diego, is just not going to happen! And oh by the way, over the last 13 years, the Super Bowl loser has lost an average of 4.3 more games the year as compared to their Super Bowl year. In the last six years, no Super Bowl losing team has lost less than 4 additional games the next year. 11 wins? We think Chicago wins less than 10.
Tampa Bay UNDER 7 Wins (2 units)
The Bucs went from 11 wins in 2005 to 4 wins in 2006. Ouch! That was the biggest drop last season by far (Washington was next closest, dropping 5 games vs. their 2005 record). The scary thing for Tampa Bay is that they don't really have luck to blame. They really were a 4-win team last season. They were really that bad of a team. They added Jeff Garcia which is an improvement over Chris Sims but they really haven't done much else to improve personnel. This team has to face Carolina and New Orleans twice each as well as Seattle, Indianapolis and Jacksonville. A very concerning fact is that this team struggles to win the all-important divisional home game. They are 3-9 SU in these games since their Super Bowl win. We don't see any reason to believe that Tampa Bay can double their win total over last year.
Philadelphia UNDER 9.5 Wins (2 units)
Philadelphia did well last season, getting 10 regular season wins and making it into the second round of the playoffs. A lot of that was due to the play of Jeff Garcia who is now gone. McNabb is back but how will he respond, at his age, off an ACL injury. Those are tough for QBs to come back from. They lost Donte Stallworth but grabbed Kevin Curtis. Their best acquisition was probably LB Takeo Spikes as their defense has been fairly weak for years. They continue to lack two of the most important assets for any NFL team: a power running game and a great defense. With McNabb's health and performance a big question mark, getting to 10 wins will be difficult.
New England UNDER 11.5 Wins (1 unit)
The Pats are an awesome team. We liked them a lot in the playoffs last year and they had things all but wrapped up mid-way through the Conference Finals vs. Indy until they inexplicably abandoned the run while laying off any pressure on Peyton Manning, allowing the Colts to come back and win that game on way to an eventual Super Bowl win. They got stronger in the off-season with the addition of Donte Stallworth, Kelley Washington and Randy Moss. Note that we aren't sold on Moss as we think he's an awful teammate and a major slacker. If anyone can whip him into shape, it's Belichick. But, we still question his heart and attitude in a big way and he's getting quite old. They lost TE Daniel Graham and Corey Dillon. They face the third toughest schedule (based on their opponents' 2006 records). They play 8 playoffs teams and 10 opponents with a winning 2006 record. No doubt, New England is one of the best teams entering 2007, if not the best. But, it will be very tough to record another 12-win season and we'll take the UNDER here looking for them to get 10-11 wins.
Detroit OVER 6.5 Wins (1 unit)
Detroit took a big step backwards last year, dropping to a measly 3 wins after a 5-win 2006 campaign. Lines-makers have pegged them at 6.5 wins this season and we like their chances to win 7 or more. We strongly believe they were more like a 6-win team last season under new HC Rod Marinelli. Their starters missed 100 games due to injury last season. Without that drag, they do much better. They added Tatum Bell at running back and brought in RT George Foster and OG Ed Mulitalo to better protect Jon Kitna. They grabbed Calvin Johnson at WR in the draft, who should have an immediate positive impact. With Rod Marinelli and OC Mike Martz getting a year under their belts, and the addition of these offensive players, the Detroit offense could be a very pleasant surprise in 2007. The Lions play in a fairly weak division with Chicago the only really strong team (and we don't think Chicago will be that good this year).
Get our six highest rated Season Win Totals picks (7-1 the past two years)
We have six picks rated at 3 or 4 units - our highest rated plays this year. Subscribers to any NFL premium package during the preseason will receive our highest rated (3 and 4 unit plays) picks for team totals. These highest rated picks have gone 7-1 the past two years. Grab one of our premium NFL packages now.