Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Buffalo had an inexplicable loss to Jacksonville and then bounced back in a big way beating the New York Jets, 45-17 the following week, and now the Bills need to redeem themselves after losing at home, 41-15 to Indianapolis on Sunday. The Bills couldn't stop Jonathan Taylor, who scored five times and rumbled his way to 185 yards rushing. Josh Allen had a rough day, completing just 21 of 35 with 2 interceptions. Fortunately for Buffalo, it gets New Orleans this week, and the Saints have lost three in a row, including 40-29 at Philadelphia on Sunday. Trevor Siemian threw 3 TD passes, but he was picked off twice, and the Saints defense gave up 242 rushing yards. Buffalo had allowed only an average of 12.3 points per game in its three previous games, and it will have better luck defending the run against the Saints, who average 117.9 yards on the ground. The UNDER is 8-1 in Buffalo's past nine games following a loss, and the Bills have stayed UNDER five of seven after losing by at least 10 points at home. Also, New Orleans is 8-0-1 UNDER its past nine Thursday games. Take the Bills on the moneyline for a Max Play, and also play the UNDER for a Max Play.

Buffalo suffered from Thursday Night Game Syndrome as it was plagued by poor tackling as the New York Jets racked up 194 rushing yards. The Bills looked tired and unprepared for the short week, but they still are 5-3 straight-up and 5-2-1 ATS this season. Tyrod Taylor was 29-of-40 for 285 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Jets despite being sacked seven times. Taylor has a 65.3 percent completion rate with 10 touchdowns and only two picks. New Orleans is on a current six-game winning streak, but this will be its toughest road test since since Week 3 at Carolina. The Saints' other two road wins were at Miami and at Green Bay, which was without Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo has gone OVER its last three games and the Bills are 14-3 OVER their last 17 home games. Also, the Bills are 14-6 OVER their last 20 games overall and 8-2 OVER after an ATS loss. New Orleans is 27-12 OVER after allowing fewer than 15 points its previous game. Buffalo will be more rested this week and play the Bills and the OVER.

For the last several years, the New Orleans Saints have had the reputation of being a powerful offensive team, and they have been. They also had one of the worst defenses last year, allowing over 30 points per game. This is a changed team, however, one that has held five of six opponents to 18 points or less. Great offenses can score 30+ points. That is something this Saints team did eight times a year ago, and 12 times the season before that. But, they have done so just twice this season. While Buffalo has both scored and allowed 20 points in every game this season, five of their seven games would have fallen shy of this total. Since the arrival of Sean Payton in the Bayou, the Saints are 8-1 UNDER at home after scoring 25+ points in three straight games. The Saints are still drawing high totals, but their defense is better and the offense isn't scoring at the same rate this year. This one stays UNDER the total.

The Saints are off to a flying start at 2-0, scoring 93 points in the process. Fantasy football owners of Drew Brees are already making room on their mantle for their league's trophy. The Saints beat a hapless Detroit team and an Eagles team without a QB, so I'm not jumping on the bandwagon just yet. Even if I was ready to hop on board, there wouldn't be room for me as those enamored with high-octane offense and spotless win-loss records are filling up the bandwagon quickly. You know what that means? Get off! The Bills suffered a horrible loss to New England by one point in the opener, but to their credit they came back strong against Tampa Bay. This team is better than most people think and they are are never an easy out at home (just ask New England). Coach Dick Juaron has posted a 15-3 ATS mark at home in non-conference games. The Bills have also been a top home dog team with an 8-4 ATS mark. Drew Brees is getting all the headlines, but we have to note that Bills QB Trent Edwards finally has some weapons at his disposal, and last week hit Lee Evans for a 32-yard TD and Terrell Ownes for a 43-yarder. While the Bills secondary has given up a lot of yards, teams have been forced to the air because they have gotten leads in both games. The good news is that the Bills have had a pick-six in each of their first two games. The Saints' pass defense has been its usual futile self as they rank No. 29 against the pass. With the Bills piling up 438 yards of offense last week, they should be able to move the ball against the Saints. The public loves a scoring team and it has driven this line up to +6, with 76% backing the Saints on the road. That is just too many points for an improving Bills team that has proven to be very tough in this spot at home.