Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Point Spread Picks

Houston brings the defense that made a real case as the league's best unit a year ago, and Buffalo counters with a version of itself that looks different at the top. Joe Brady was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach after Sean McDermott was let go, so Josh Allen keeps the same play-caller, but Brady is running his first game as a head coach and everything that comes with it: clock management, fourth-down calls, in-game adjustments a rookie head coach has never had to make. That kind of transition tends to slow a team down in a season opener even when the scheme itself hasn't changed. Houston's own offense is now in its second year under coordinator Nick Caley, which points to a more measured script early rather than a shootout. Two strong defenses, with one sideline learning on the job in real time, are the recipe for a total that stays under. Take the UNDER.

Buffalo exploded for 44 points with Josh Allen scoring six TDs against Tampa Bay, but it will be a different story on Thursday night when the Bills face the NFL's #1 defense. Houston allows just 258.1 total yards and 16.3 points per game, and the Texans are #3 in pass defense, right behind the #2 Bills. The Texans stayed UNDER by eight points even with a low posted total of 37 when they beat Tennessee 16-13 on Sunday. The Titans were held to 229 total yards, 58 on the ground. Buffalo has gone UNDER in four of six games, and seven of the past eight meetings have stayed UNDER. Houston is on an 8-3 UNDER run, including four of five home games. The Bills are 4-0 UNDER after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, and the Texans are 14-2-2 UNDER after an ATS loss. Take the UNDER. 

The Buffalo Bills have scored 78 points in their last two games, and they certainly could be heading for more of the same as Houston will be led once again by Davis Mills. Houston may have some time-of-possession issues in this game, and that affords the Buffalo offense a lot of opportunities. Where I think this total gets threatened is in the 4th quarter when the Houston offense is most likely going to be facing a lot of second and third-team players. It looks to me that if the Texans can get to 13 points, it very well could put this one OVER the total. Josh Allen has seen 13 of his last 20 games play OVER the total, and the Bills games averaged 53.1 points per game last season. Make the play on the OVER.

The Bills made their own bye last week, resting players against the Jets. RB Devin Singletary (775 yards, 5.1 ypc) leads the No. 5 ranked ground attack, which should chew up yards and the clock along with mobile QB Josh Allen (20 TDs, 9 INTS), who made big strides. The Bill's punishing defense is why they're here as the "D" is third in yards allowed, #10 against the run, fourth versus the pass, and second in points (16.2 per game). On the road this season, they were actually better, allowing just 15.6 points. Buffalo's offense scored just 19.6 points per game and struggles down the stretch, averaging just 13.3 per game in their last four contests. Buffalo is 19-7 UNDER the total on the road, 19-7 UNDER as a dog, and 35-16 UNDER as a road dog. Houston's defense isn't in the same league, ranked #18 in points surrendered, #24 against the run (120 ypg), fourth-worst against the pass. Over the last seven seasons, teams like Houston that are coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to the hand of a division rival are 59-29 to the UNDER. Teams off a double digit loss are 368-290 to the UNDER over the last eight seasons when the total falls between 41.5 - 50. Combined this season, these teams were 21-11 to the UNDER. The Bills were 6-2 on the road this season, good for a better win percentage than Houston had at home. Teams off a home blowout loss of more than 14 points are just 277-546 (33.7%) straight-up in their next game. That includes a mark of just 199-494 (28.7%) if not favored by at least a field goal. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are 13-8 straight-up off a loss. Also, this game opened to a total of 41 and has been bet up by the public to 44. I think the oddsmakers had it right to start. Play Buffalo to win this one straight-up and also play the UNDER in this game.