Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans

Houston has enjoyed two impressive wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh and C.J. Stroud so far appears to be the correct draft pick by the Texans as he threw for 306 yards and two TDs, both to wide receiver Nico Collins, in their 30-6 blowout win against the Steelers. Houston's defense also has stepped up and it allowed only 225 total yards on Sunday when Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game with an injury and now the Texans will face another second-year QB in Desmond Ridder, who had a miserable day against Jacksonville as he threw two interceptions on two straight first-half throws and finished 19 of 31 for 191 yards in a 23-7 loss. Houston has covered six of eight as an underdog and four of its past five road contests. Atlanta is 11-25 ATS as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points, 9-19 ATS its past 28 October games and 0-5 ATS off a double-digit loss versus a team off a straight-up underdog win. The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS as road dogs of 0.5-3.0 points and the Falcons are 0-4 ATS after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game. Play the Texans.

Atlanta needs to protect Matt Ryan better after he threw for 397 yards against Tennessee, but was sacked five times, including twice on a fourth-down play. The Falcons outgained the Titans 422-365 and Ryan completed 35-of-53 passes. This week the Falcons will have to contain Houston QB Deshaun Watson and hopefully force some turnovers without committing any themselves in addition to giving Devonta Freeman some blocking after he gained only 28 yards on Sunday. The Texans are 1-13 ATS in Week 5 the last 14 years and the Falcons have covered 23 of their last 32 after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game. Also, the Texans have not covered four of their last five home games dating to last season. Watson completed 21-of-33 for 160 yards against the Panthers with no touchdowns. Houston is 15-5 OVER its last 20 October games and Atlanta has gone OVER 17 of its last 21 on artificial turf. Play the Falcons for a Max Play and also take the OVER.

Despite a losing record, Houston has only been outscored by just four points this season. They have a ton of defensive talent and QB Ryan Mallett is settling in after leading the team to a 19-9 win last week. The defense held Tampa Bay to 318 total yards and just 1-of-12 on third down. Tampa Bay averaged 2.9 yards per carry. The Texans are on a 3-1-1 ATS run on the road, as well as 3-1-1 away against a team with a winning home record. They face a rebuilding Atlanta defense that is off to a 3-0 start. However, this defense is still a major weak spot, ranked #23 in yards allowed, #24 in pass yards, and #17 in points. Atlanta comes off a thrilling comeback win at Dallas but still allowed six yards per rush. Star WR Julio Jones will play but is not 100% with another toe injury. Meanwhile, tight end Jacob Tamme was held out again this week in practice as he goes through the NFL concussion protocol. Levine Toilolo may start for Tamme. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record, plus 17-35-2 ATS after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. This Atlanta defense will struggle to contain Houston's speedy young WR DeAndre Hopkins, who has 22 receptions for 252 yards and three scores. Take the points on Houston.

The Houston Texans caught a tough break a couple of weeks ago when QB Matt Schaub went down with a season-ending injury. They took yet another hit when Matt Leinhart went down with a season-ending injury as well, and were forced to turn to third string QB T.J. Yates. They regrouped and got it done vs. Jacksonville. The Texans signed Jake Delhomme as insurance, but Yates will get the start in this one. As a result, one of the best teams in the NFL is getting 3 points at home. It's an overreaction. The Texans aren't a team that has been winning on offense, and when trouble looms defenses usually step up and Houston has the best in the NFL this year (#1 in yards allowed and #2 in points allowed). Kudos to Wade Phillips. The guy can't deliver as a head coach but he's a helluva DC. The best part of what Yates did last week was that he didn't throw any INTs and managed the game well enough to preserve a win. I think with Schaub at QB the Texans would be close to a TD favorite here, so is Shaub really worth 10+ points on the line? The Falcons have failed in their last four as a favorite of a FG or less, and the Texans keep right on rolling and have not taken an ATS loss in five straight. Gary Kubiak is 9-2 ATS at home in December. Take the underrated Texans.