Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo Bills

Arizona has to improve this year with Kyler Murray back under center and the arrival of rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., who is expected to be a superstar. The Cardinals finished 5-3 ATS in their last eight games and have covered four of their past five September games. Buffalo has only been 5-9-1 ATS in its past 15 games overall and 16-18-1 ATS in the past two seasons. The Bills lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, including star wideout Stefon Diggs. The Bills also lost center Mitch Morse and wide receiver Gabe Davis. The defense will be without Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre'Davious White, who all went elsewhere. Arizona has a solid running game as long as James Connor stays healthy after he rushed for 1,040 yards on 5.0 per carry with seven touchdowns in 2023. Josh Allen will have plenty of new personnel to work with, but the Bills lost five games outright as a favorite last year. Take the Cardinals as a Max Play.

This is the squarest play on the board this week, courtesy of over 80% of the betting public buying the Arizona Cardinals as a road favorite. Arizona was one of the best teams in football last season, and this season they opened at home vs.Tom Brady-less New England team, and proceeded to lose. Arizona then took advantage of five Tampa Bay turnovers last week on the way to a 40-7 rout. How will that affect this week? Early in the season, teams that cover by 14 points or more, as a big favorite (-7 or more), and had the turnover advantage are 51-81 ATS in their next game. Such teams are generally overrated in their next game as the public lines up behind them, and the bookmakers shade the line. The reality is that this line should be a field goal or less, so we have line value on the Bills. Buffalo always seems to have high expectations coming into the season, but tend to never measure up. They have gone 16 seasons with just one winning campaign, and that was 9-7. They are in their best, most comfortable, and dangerous spot as they are playing at home as a dog. In that situation, they are 12-5 ATS since 2011. If you have a short memory, the last two NFC teams to come here as a favorite were the 2013 Panthers who finished 12-4 and lost outright, and the 2014 Packers, also finished 12-4 and lost outright in Buffalo. If you handicap this game on the numbers, Arizona is going to win. But, if you handicap this one on history, Buffalo gets the money at the very least, and when you add in that this is the biggest public play this week, there is only one way to go. Take the Bills and the points.

Some of the bloom came off the rose last week as the Arizona Cardinals were beaten soundly by the St. Louis Rams. A lot of the chinks in the armor were revealed, as the Cards' offensive line was exposed badly. The inept offense that now ranks No. 31 in the league didn't make it into the end zone the entire game. Kolb has now been sacked 17 times in the last two games, so you know what the Bills’ game plan is going to be already. Naturally, the Cardinals want to exploit the Bills’ weakness, which is stopping the ground game. Buffalo has been torched for over 500 rushing yards over the last two weeks, but Arizona just doesn’t have the backs to get it done. Ryan Williams is gone for the year and Beanie Wells is on injured reserve, leaving LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell, or Alfonso Smith to do the damage. That's not very promising. I also expect Buffalo to come out with a lot of passion here, as they have suffered back-to-back losses of 21 or more points. Teams over the last 10 years having done so are 33-16 ATS. In their last 21 road games after allowing 35+ points, the Bills are 16-5 ATS. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games as a favorite in this range (+3.5 to +9.5). Grab the points and play on Buffalo as my NFL Game of the Month.

We were on the OVER last week in the Cardinals game vs. the Jets and they exceeded the total - twice! One look at Arizona last week shows something of interest. They turned the ball over seven times meaning they had seven possessions interupted, but still manged 35 points! That is hard to ignore, especially playing at home. Kurt Warner is a savvy veteran, and I would expect he gets redemption here, and moves the offense as he has with less mistakes. The Bills have turned very offensive behind a developing Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and WR Lee Evans. Arizona has a QB rating against their defense of 102.4, so look for the pass happy Bills to chew up yardage just like the Favre and the Jets did last week. The Cards, after putting up 350 yards or more in their previous game, have been an astounding 42-17 to the OVER in their next game. They are also 16-6 OVER as an underdog the past three seasons. This one should have plenty of scoring and again go OVER.