Game 1 settled the tone of this series more than the final score reflects. The Spurs led by 14 in the third quarter with both offenses shooting 40-41% from the field, a combined 103 first-half points, and Jalen Brunson hobbling on a knee and ankle — and still lost 105-95 on a Brunson fourth-quarter takeover. The market has priced Game 2 as though the offenses are about to open up. San Antonio's defensive rating is second in the playoffs, and they held Oklahoma City — who was shooting 51% from the field in the first two rounds — to 42.6% for an entire series. The Knicks own the top defensive rating in the postseason at 103.5. These are two defenses built to make every basket expensive, and the first half of Game 1 said everything about where the Game 2 total is headed: 103 combined points, well under the posted number.
Victor Wembanyama shot 6 of 21 with six turnovers and said, "I was bad tonight" when it was over. He's going to be better in Game 2, but that means composed and controlled, not an explosion. The Spurs were the better team for 42 minutes on Wednesday; a late Brunson burst is the outlier, not the defensive identity that dominated the first three quarters. San Antonio doesn't let a 14-point lead vanish at home in the NBA Finals twice. Lay the points with the Spurs as a Max Play, take the first-half UNDER, and take the full-game UNDER.
