Boston at Detroit

Detroit finished 60-22 and took the top seed in the East. Boston went 56-26, four games back, and both clubs lost Game 7s in the playoffs: the Pistons to Cleveland and the Celtics to Philadelphia. The Celtics come into this afternoon's opener rebuilt. Jaylen Brown is in Philadelphia. Paul George and Mitchell Robinson are in, Mike Conley arrived as a veteran guard, and Jayson Tatum starts his first full season since returning from a torn Achilles on March 6. With that many new parts, I expect Boston's half-court offense to need time to settle. Boston played at a pace of 95.6 last season, 30th in the league, and still ranked fourth in defensive rating. Its games run on fewer possessions and more stops. Detroit's defensive rating was 109.7 on the way to the best record in the conference. A slow team and a defensive team in an opener with no rhythm points to a low-scoring game. That same game shape favors the home side. In a low-possession game, it comes down to a handful of late stops, and the club with last season's better record is getting plus money. Detroit has to win this about 48% of the time to show a profit. That bar looks low for a 60-win team in its own building. I'm on the UNDER as my bigger play, and the Pistons on the moneyline this afternoon.