Atlanta at Orlando

Atlanta swept Orlando 4-0 last season, and the opener of that series in Orlando went to the Hawks 111-107. Both teams open tonight on full rest, so the schedule gives neither side an edge and the case sits in the rosters. Orlando is without Anthony Black and Jonathan Isaac, and it plays its first game for new head coach Sean Sweeney. Atlanta finished 46-36 to Orlando's 45-37. The Hawks' net rating was plus 2.4 against plus 0.6 for the Magic, and Atlanta allowed 113.7 points per 100 possessions to Orlando's 114.3. I build both bets on one driver, Orlando's offense. It shot 34.3% from three last season, fourth-worst in the league, and Black's absence thins the guard group that has to create those looks. Atlanta doesn't get a perimeter surge in return, because the Magic allowed 12.1 made threes per game, the fewest in the league. Isaac is a defender Orlando loses. Atlanta plays at 101.7 possessions per 48 minutes to Orlando's 100.0. A Magic team that can't shoot its way out of a slow start keeps the Hawks live and keeps the scoreboard from running. Orlando covered 13 of 30 as a home favorite last season, so I'm taking Atlanta with the points and the UNDER tonight.