Houston Rockets vs Orlando Magic

Houston just finished a six-game homestand. The offense is 24th in field goal shooting, 23rd from 3-point land, and last from the free-throw line (74%). They've failed to cover the last two games and are on a 2-5 spread run away from home. They come off an overtime win Monday night at home over Philadelphia as a 16-point favorite. Orlando is home from a five-game trek, playing well on a 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS run. Orlando is No. 1 in the NBA defensively in points given up. They come off a 108-103 upset at Cleveland as a +10.5 underdog, so back home court. Play Orlando. 

The Rockets are still an excellent basketball team, but they have undoubtedly slipped some as the season has progressed. It is easy to get fooled by the Rockets 39-25 record. That has not been the case over their last 19 games, where they are 8-11. Before going 8-11, the Rockets were 31-14!! They have shown to be vulnerable in a lot of ways. The Orlando Magic is 30-35 on the season, but that is good enough for the #8 spot in the play-in round. This Rocket team has been struggling for 19 games, and I don't believe they have figured out things yet. Make the play on Orlando.

A young Houston squad opens the new campaign on the road. Last year, the Rockets were the second-worst team in the Western Conference while losing 33 of 41 road contests. They added Dillon Brooks to upgrade the offense but the defense still looks poor, one that was 28th in points given up (118.6 per game), 21st in field goal shooting allowed (48.2%), and 27th at defending beyond the arc (37.4%). The Rockets are on a 13-25 spread run on the road, including 11-23 ATS as a road dog. Orlando made a 12-win improvement from the previous year that was the best jump in the Eastern Conference in 2022-23. They played best at home going 20-21 and were sixth in the NBA at defending the 3-pointer. They open the new season at home and are 19-9 ATS in non-conference action. Play Orlando.