The dynamics of NBA handicapping shift for each game. Sometimes a great team will blow a bad team out of the water, covering easily as a double-digit favorite. Other times that big home underdog plays a great game, covering or even winning. They might have a chip on their shoulder, anxious to end a losing streak, or simply reaching deep down for pride to shut up critics.   Still other times, the wagering value is on the total. Two strong offensive clubs, or ones that prefer an uptempo style, might not give a damn about defense and run all night in a 137-130 shootout, sailing OVER the total by 40 points. There are dozens of other factors, too, such as injuries, road treks, coaches on the hot seat, rivalry, and revenge. It's the job of the oddsmakers to not just make numbers but to keep up on all the ancillary tidbits that can influence a team's performance.  

Why Use Free NBA Picks for Tonight

To keep up with all the NBA nightly nuances it's essential to put the time into accruing information during the day. Digest updated stats while checking what the local beat writers are saying about their city's professional basketball team. Cull national websites, as well, along with examining the previous few games. Has a team's defense gone to hell over the last week? Are there nagging injuries to key contributors? Has the coach mentioned that he's making changes on the court to try and fix a weak area?  It's a lot to do, of course, with 30 NBA teams and multiple websites providing different types of specialized information. That's why adding Tonight's free NBA picks to your handicapping schedule makes sense if your goal is to win money. It's like having an assistant alongside you helping to share the load and find the best data that apply to wagering.  

Betting Value in Tonight's Free NBA Picks

The oddsmakers aren't dummies. Many of their lines will draw equal action or can fall right around the final score. But there are so many odds available each night that aren't quite on representing outstanding wagering value. Two great defensive teams playing in a tired situational spot (both playing their third game in four nights) can offer betting value UNDER the total. Or, the first half of that matchup might be in an even better UNDER play. Sometimes lines will move from the opening number providing value on the other side.  Other times the line moves on one team but the moneyline on that same team doesn't move as much, opening up better value on the moneyline. It's all about getting as much pregame information as possible and knowing where the wagering value lies in all those odds.  

Wunderdog Tonight's Free NBA Picks

The NBA regular season is an 82-game grind. If one wants to cover spreads over the course of the season, it takes preparation and knowledge, along with an eye for numbers, stats, and odds. I spend the morning examining data, comparing it to the betting numbers I made the previous night, then looking at the actual Vegas odds. In addition, I follow line movement, a key factor that needs to be carefully understood. Lines move all the team, but the key is knowing why it's moving and who's moving it. If a star player is injured or the coach announces he's resting his best player, the line is going to move against that team. Lines move all day long for different reasons. It's essential to differentiate between line movement hype, a flood of small money from average players, or movement because a few sharps who bet big are moving it. I've been studying and winning for over 20 years and have a complete understanding of line movement along with where the best odds are.  

Tonight's Free NBA Picks vs. Premium Picks

Tonight's Free NBA Picks Pros:

  • More information means more ways to beat the odds
  • Daily picks from a pro in multiple forms (sides, totals, props, moneylines)
  • Gives you a far better understanding of the mechanics of daily line movement

Tonight's Free NBA Picks Picks Cons:

  • Identifying the right info and the softest offs can be time-consuming
  • Free sports betting picks won't help you if the capper making the selections isn't any good at it
  • Any service that recommends parlaying often or "doubling up" to recoup money lost isn't providing good advice

Premium Tonight's NBA Picks Pros:

  • The top picks on the card should contain multiple angles, key betting information, and clear reasoning
  • Premium picks can contain important info that isn't widely available
  • Important insight into line movement taking place on the other side of the wagering window

Premium Tonight's NBA Picks Cons:

  • Be skeptical of a pick on every game on the nightly NBA card
  • Too many betting trends with no other angles
  • An absence of explanations on each game

How To Win With Tonight's Free NBA Picks

Acquiring reams of information on a game is meaningless if a person can't identify weaknesses in the spread and apply them correctly. Many times the oddsmakers have the side and totaled nailed, so passing is Okay.  After all, money not wagered on a losing pick is money still in your betting bankroll. It takes time and practice to recognize lines that are off. It also takes knowledge and experience to see which way a line is going to move so you can lock in the best number at the right time.  Examining Tonight's Free NBA Picks from a documented pro helps fine-tune your handicapping game. And those professional bettors know how to identify undervalued odds and overvalued teams, another key step to picking winners on a regular basis.  

Tonight's Free NBA Picks Betting Strategy

Homestands

At NBA tipoff each night, the matchups and stats on the floor don't change but teams are always facing different situations. One of the best advantages is a long homestand. With 41 road games, teams have to endure difficulties such as changing time zones, getting on buses, airline rides, staying in hotels, and practicing in gyms that they're not used to.   All of this takes a toll physically and mentally, even on professional athletes who are in their prime. Teams playing at home don't have to deal with any of that. By contrast, practicing in the same facility every day puts players in a comfort zone making it easier to work on their game, such as finding their shooting touch.  They're more comfortable in their home building. Noise and lighting are different in other venues which can negatively impact even the best 3-point shooters. LeBron James had his worst playoff game versus Dallas (8 points, 3-of-11 shooting). It was on the road.   Hall-of-Famer Larry Bird had zero points in only one NBA game in his entire career...at Golden State. Years later, Bird admitted he never got used to the lighting in that building. NBA home underdogs on long homestands can be worth a look versus teams playing the second of a back-to-back or on extended road treks.  

Injuries

Injuries actually cut two ways. When key players are injured, the oddsmakers almost always factor that in with pregame line adjustments. They have to as a guy averaging 24 points per game who is out is probably going to be missed.   However, that's not always the case. NBA teams can survive without missing a beat if a key player is out for a few games if they have a decent backup or role player who can step. That player might not score the missing 24 points, but he can get 12 while other good scorers get a few more shots than normal.   Or, if a team has a reliable, deep bench, a coach will lean on that without much of a dropoff in production with a missing starter. Professional handicappers assess injuries carefully. There could be a small dropoff, a significant dropoff, or not at all.  

Totals and Styles of Play

Some NBA coaches demand great defense all the time. In the offseason, they will put rosters together with some role players that can rebound and hustle on defense. They're not always polished offensive players, but the coach can rely on them to crash the boards and play tough defense all the time.   Other coaches like to lean on defense so much that they prefer a slower pace. Teams with great defensive intensity will stand out in stats with team field goal defense, 3-point shooting 'D', and/or points allowed. When they face uptempo teams, it's often the slower-paced teams that are still able to control the tempo.  In addition, even the best offensive teams can have poor shooting nights against opponents who play choking defense. And when two all-out defensive teams square off, or two that prefer a slower pace, that can mean very low-scoring tilts.  All of these are factors that factor wagering on a game going UNDER the total. You can even avoid getting burns by overtime or double-overtime by wagering on the First Half UNDER.  

Tonight's Free NBA Picks Subscription

The oddsmakers do a decent job of getting many numbers correct. But with so many NBA games on the schedule during the week, there are going to be plenty of weak numbers along with line movement opening up outstanding betting opportunities.  This is where getting tonight's free NBA parlay picks helps. It provides daily information, some of which you won't have time to find. It also unveils betting lines that have the best chance to cover along with the reasons why. You have to be armed with information to find the best available wagering lines and situations. You get all that with tonight's free NBA picks from me on a subscription service right to your computer. As you do your handicapping homework each morning, I'm right beside you - for free.

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