Cincinnati at New York

Chase Burns has been the most dominant young starter in the NL this season — 8-1 with a 2.01 ERA — and the market has built this game entirely around what he does. The piece being overlooked is what's happening on the Cincinnati side of the ball. The Reds have gone 6-17 without Elly De La Cruz, who remains on minor league rehab and is out again this afternoon, and that run-suppression on their own side changes what the runline actually costs. Elmer Rodriguez gets the ball in his fourth MLB start, and the surface numbers — a 4.15 ERA, too many walks, no outing past four innings yet — undersell what he's capable of. He posted a 1.27 ERA in Triple-A before the promotion and owns a sweeping curveball opponents have produced zero hits against. Rodriguez isn't going to go six innings; he doesn't have to. The Yankees bullpen will absorb innings against a Reds lineup running well below capacity, and New York's lineup has enough firepower to score against anybody, including Burns, when the moment calls for it. The value on this runline is significant for a team that figures to be a clear favorite on the moneyline. New York wins on the runline this afternoon.