Cincinnati at Arizona

I had the UNDER in the opener of this series two days ago and it did not work out, Arizona jumping on Cincinnati early in a 9-0 laugher that blew right through the number. The very next night the Reds turned around and hung eleven on the Diamondbacks, which sets up a rubber match this afternoon between two lineups that have traded body blows all series without much regard for pitching. That kind of back-and-forth is exactly the spot my numbers flag for a correction: a series where the last two games went to opposite extremes tends to settle into something tighter in the finale. Mitch Bratt gets the ball for Arizona carrying a 4.17 ERA, and Andrew Abbott goes for Cincinnati at 4.07, two middle-of-the-road arms capable of keeping this one from getting away from either side. Neither offense has been consistent enough this season to trust as a total-inflator on request, and after two games decided by a combined fifteen runs, I like the number to settle back down. Take the UNDER in the rubber game this afternoon.