Virginia Tech at SMU

Virginia Tech has lost two games this season, 35-33 to Pittsburgh on October 2 and 25-20 at California on October 10. Neither was decided by more than five. The Hokies have beaten Georgia Tech 34-24 and won 20-16 at Clemson since then, and they had last week off. SMU comes in at 6-2 after a 30-27 loss at Syracuse on Saturday. Over eight games each, Virginia Tech has scored 35 points a game and allowed 20.5. SMU has scored 35.3 and allowed 22.3. The teams are close in every scoring number, and the market still has one of them at a much shorter price. I see the separator as the pass rush. Virginia Tech has 27 sacks in eight games, the most in the ACC, and Kevin Jennings has to keep SMU's offense moving through that pressure. SMU's two losses came when it allowed 41 at Louisville and 30 at Syracuse, so a defense that can be scored on meets a Hokies passing game that put up 434 yards from Ethan Grunkemeyer against Pittsburgh. That is a matchup Virginia Tech can win outright. Our bankroll only needs Virginia Tech to win about one game in three. My play is the Hokies on the moneyline Friday night.