Utah State at Texas State

Utah State comes off a bye after beating Washington State 17-16, a game it trailed by 13 at halftime. The Aggies are 2-4, and Texas State is 3-3, and the Bobcats average 40 points per game, the second most in the Pac-12, with at least 26 in each of their last five. Utah State has been beaten by 19 or more points only twice this season, 33-0 at Utah and 37-18 at Boise State. Both of those opponents were ranked. In the other four games, Utah State lost 29-17 to Idaho State and 16-14 at Washington, then beat Troy 21-10 and Washington State. Jacobs ran for 139 yards at Boise State, showing the Aggies can move the ball on the ground against a ranked defense. Texas State allowed 31 points in its 31-29 loss at San Diego State and 27 in its 66-27 win over Colorado State. A defense giving up that many gives an offense like Utah State's room to keep the game inside the number into the fourth quarter. The Aggies have finished within 18 points of their opponent in four of six games. At this number, we show a profit if Utah State covers 49% of the time. I'm taking Utah State.