USC at UCLA

UCLA got caught looking ahead to this game last week and suffered a home loss to Arizona as a 20-point favorite. USC is 9-1 and that loss has left the Bruins at 8-2, but this is still a huge game vs inner-city rivals. Odds-makers are expecting a shootout here, with the total in the mid-70s. I think the rivalry is going to inspire somewhat conservative play and have the defense showing up. The last 21 totals posted that were greater than 74 have seen the under prevail 13-8. I think when you consider the magnitude of this game, and the rivalry status, the points aren't going to go the way the numbers look. UCLA after allowing 31 points or more in their last two games, and facing an opponent that has scored 37 or more in two straight games is 66-34 ATS to the UNDER. Make the play UNDER the total.