UNLV at Hawaii

I had the UNDER in UNLV's opener last week, and it cashed in a 27-21 final that Memphis actually came away with, a result that says this UNLV roster is still finding itself even with a talented group returning under Dan Mullen. Tonight brings a different kind of test: a true road trip across the Pacific to face a Hawaii team that closed last season with a Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl win over California. That flight and the time change have a real history of taking some juice out of a visiting offense in Week 1, and UNLV averaged 34 points a game a year ago, well above what either defense in this matchup profiles to allow with any consistency. Hawaii's defense held up reasonably well under Timmy Chang, giving up just over 24 points a game, and UNLV's own defense wasn't far off at 28, which points toward a game that stays competitive rather than turning into the kind of shootout the raw scoring numbers from a year ago would suggest. UNLV still projects as the more talented roster on both sides of the ball, the kind of gap that shows up in a workable margin even in a tighter, more grounded game than either offense played much of last season. Between two defenses capable of forcing some stops and a long road trip working against UNLV's usual scoring pace, this total has more reasons to stay UNDER than to climb, and I like UNLV to grind out the margin it needs even if the pace slows down. Take UNLV to cover, and bet the UNDER.