Troy at James Madison

James Madison lost for the first time this season last Thursday, 34-31 in overtime at Appalachian State. George Pettaway, its leading rusher with 824 yards and eight touchdowns, is out for this game. Troy is 3-4 and has lost four of its last five, by 10 at Missouri, 11 at Utah State, 27 at Louisiana and 7 against Louisiana-Monroe. Take out the Wagner game, and James Madison has played seven games against FBS opponents. It won three of them by 26 or more. The other four finished 7, 13 and 3 in wins, plus the three-point overtime loss. Troy is a run-first offense at 197.3 rushing yards a game. That approach burns clock, and every possession it takes away is one fewer chance for the Dukes to stretch a lead. The Trojans also played this team in last season's Sun Belt Championship Game and lost 31-14, and that result is part of what the market is pricing. Pettaway rushed for 206 yards against Marshall and 151 at Georgia Southern, so the Dukes' ground game has been the engine for their offense. I'm on Troy with the points tonight, with a ground-based offense set against a Dukes backfield that has lost its leading rusher.