Toledo at Sacramento State

Toledo beat Western Michigan 45-38 in its last game. The Rockets score 37.4 points a game, 16th in the FBS, and throw for 288.1 yards a game, 12th. Sacramento State is 2-7. Its offense is sixth-worst in the FBS at 17.0 points a game and seventh-worst at 295.9 total yards a game. Toledo's defense allows 25.4 points a game, 79th in the FBS, and Sacramento State's offense is not built to take advantage of that. The Hornets' own defense gives up 30.3 points a game. Sacramento State's best result came last Saturday, a 31-10 win over Kent State. The defense forced five turnovers in that game, four of them in the fourth quarter. The Hornets are back on the field four days later, and a defense that needed five takeaways to look that good is hard to trust again. Toledo, meanwhile, averages well over four yards a carry in the six wins that make up its 6-2 record. Sacramento State has lost all six games in which it allowed more than four yards a carry. Toledo's ground game gives the Hornets few ways to stay close, which is why I'm laying the points with the Rockets tonight.