Texas State at Oregon State

Texas State scored 45 points at Boise State on October 31 and still lost by one, 46-45. That was the fourth time in eight games the Bobcats scored at least 45, and they average 38.1 points per game across the season. They sit at 4-4 (2-2 in the Pac-12), and Oregon State is 5-3 (3-1) and averages 40.1. The Bobcats' defense has allowed 32 points per game, including 59 in the opener at Texas. Oregon State's defense is not much sturdier. It allowed 33 at Houston, 35 to Texas Tech, 30 to Washington State and 38 at Fresno State, so four of its eight opponents reached 30. Fresno State ran for 191 yards against the Beavers, sacked Braden Atkinson five times and forced two fumbles. Atkinson still threw for 373 yards in that game, but the Beavers trailed 31-9 before they scored a touchdown. Texas State's last three losses were by five, two and one points, so it has stayed on the field with teams in games that ended one possession either way. A game that turns into a shootout on Saturday night suits the side with the bigger price. At these odds, the nights this offense reaches its ceiling pay for the ones it doesn't, so I'm backing the Bobcats.