These picks were released to clients on August 31, 2025 at 10:52AM ET.
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TCU at North Carolina

September 1, 2025
img8:00 PM Eastern

The Bill Belichick era begins at North Carolina, and he opens as an underdog against TCU, which is 1-4 ATS in its past five September games. Gio Lopez has been named the starting quarterback for the Tarheels after he led South Alabama to a 7-6 record and a bowl appearance last year. Lopez threw for 2,559 yards and 18 TDs while rushing for 465 yards and seven scores for the Jaguars. North Carolina needs to replace Omarion Hampton, its top rusher and pass-catcher in 2024. Davion Gause appears to be the answer after totaling 326 yards on 4.9 yards per carry. The Tarheels likely will start eight transfers on defense, and they are expected to have a strong secondary. Josh Hoover returns under center for the Horned Frogs, although he'll have to rely on several new receivers as TCU lost 2,378 yards and 17 TDs when their top receiving corps left for the NFL. Eric McAlister is expected to be the top receiver this season after he had 39 catches for 762 yards and five TDs last year. TCU is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 weekday games. Take North Carolina.

North Carolina went UNDER six of its last nine games in 2024 and TCU stayed UNDER five of its last eight. Steve Belichick joins his dad as defensive coordinator after having the same position at Washington. The Huskies finished #28 in the country in yards allowed under his leadership. North Carolina is 8-1 UNDER its past nine games as an underdog. The Horned Frogs bring back eight defensive starters after allowing 25 points per game last season. Take the UNDER.

 

2 units on North Carolina +3.5 (-106) (risk 2 to return 3.89)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 55.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
TCU Horned Frogs img
7
13
21
7
48
North Carolina Tar Heels
7
0
7
0
14
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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