South Florida at East Carolina

East Carolina's last two road games both went to overtime, 30-17 at UAB and 41-34 at Memphis, and Memphis finished with 75 combined points. The Pirates have scored 24 or more in four of eight games and average 24.0 points. South Florida averages 27 and has scored 24 or more in five of eight. Its latest was 30 against UAB, which included two fumble-return touchdowns. Luke Kromenhoek ran for 92 yards in that game after Michael Van Buren Jr. left with an injury. USF has allowed 14.5 points a game, and I put more weight on its road games, where it gave up 24 at Army in a 28-24 win and 31 at UTSA in a 31-24 loss. Our bankroll needs the OVER to land a little more than half the time. East Carolina's defense lost coordinator Josh Aldridge to the Bulls in the offseason. Under first-year coordinator Jordon Hankins it has allowed 48 at Alabama, 27 to Appalachian State, 30 at UAB and 41 at Memphis. That works out to 24.1 points a game over eight games. East Carolina allows 24.1 points a game, so back the OVER.