Sam Houston State at Texas

The Texas offense, led by Arch Manning, has really struggled to score points. The preseason #1 Longhorns are averaging just 24 PPG. They are 93rd in the FBS in scoring and have a completion percentage of just 55.7%. While they've had some success on the ground, their overall offensive production has been inconsistent, and it's not a good recipe for covering massive spreads like this one. The good news is that they have been carried by a high-level defense that has allowed 10.3 PPG so far. The defense is looking to pitch a shutout, but this is the last non-conference game for Texas before they begin their SEC schedule against Florida, so it sets up as look-ahead spot. Sam Houston State is 0-3 on the season but the run defense has held opponents 3.8 yards per carry. They can expect to see a heavy dose of the ground attack here and that will help eat up the clock, keeping this one within range. Texas has played all three games UNDER the total, moving their record to 20-10 to the UNDER in their last 30 games. That includes 5-1 to the UNDER in their six games as a favorite of 31 or more points. Grab the points with Sam Houston State, and bet this game to stay UNDER the total.