Penn State at USC

It is hard to believe with the success that Penn State has had, that this will be their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1994-95. Coach Paterno has been a mastermind preparing his team for Bowl games. The Nittany Lions are 9-2 in their last 11 Bowl appearances, out-scoring opponents by 125 points in the process (11.4 per game). Paterno has only lost five out of 34 Bowl games by more than a TD. This year he has a solid team on both sides of the ball and were one point away from the National Championship game and an undefeated season as their only blemish was a one-point loss to Iowa. The Lions have put up 45 points or more in seven of their games and have an explosive offense. But at the same time they held 10 opponents to 18 or less. The Trojans are a very good team, but looking at the schedule, the fact that they were at least a 21-point favorite in nine of 12 games shows that there were few challenges. The Trojans averaged a line of -26.2 points per game and were never a favorite of less than 10.5 the entire season. That usually means the defense and the offense are a bit overrated, because the numbers came from a lot of empty games. Don't get me wrong. This is a very good USC team. But I question their motivation here, and also their ability to play if someone gives them a game. When they got behind at Oregon State they simply didn't respond. They got to within seven points and the nation’s leading defense cracked and allowed Oregon State to put the game away with another score. I like the points here. The fact that USC has the best defense in the country may be true, but not against teams like Penn State and they will get their share here. The Trojans have played their last four Bowl games with similar defenses, and all four games went OVER. I expect this one to do the same. I'm going Penn State and the OVER in this one.